Lei Li

In response to a series of problems brought about by rapid economic development, such as global warming and the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, China has taken the initiative to shoulder the responsibility of a major country and continued to contribute Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” at an early date. In this paper, Henan Province has been selected as the study area, and the changes in land use and carbon storage in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020 have been analyzed spatially and temporally. The PLUS model is used to predict future land use changes under different scenarios, and the InVEST model is used to estimate carbon storage under the corresponding scenarios. The results showed that (1) During 2000–2020, the farmland in Henan Province has been in a decreasing trend, grassland and construction land showed a decreasing trend and then an increasing trend, and woodland showed a decreasing trend. From 2000 to 2020, Henan’s overall carbon storage showed a downward trend each year, with storage mainly in the western and southern regions of the province, with a spatial distribution of high storage in the west and low storage in the east. (2) Under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) from 2030 to 2050, the area of farmland and woodland basically showed a continuous downward trend, while construction land showed an upward trend annually, and farmland and construction land showed an increasing trend under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) and economic priority scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5). The decreasing trend of carbon storage was the smallest under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) and the ecological protection scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6). The results provide a basis for decision-making regarding low-carbon and circular developments and rational and optimal land use in Henan.

Land-use change has a great impact on regional ecosystem balance and carbon storage, so it is of great significance to study future land-use types and carbon storage in a region to optimize the regional land-use structure. Based on the existing land-use data and the different scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathway and the representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) provided by CMIP6, this study used the PLUS model to predict future land use and the InVEST model to predict the carbon storage in the study area in the historical period and under different scenarios in the future. The results show the following: (1) The change in land use will lead to a change in carbon storage. From 2000 to 2020, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the main transfer type, which was also an important reason for the decrease in regional carbon storage. (2) Under the three scenarios, the SSP126 scenario has the smallest share of arable land area, while this scenario has the largest share of woodland and grassland land area, and none of the three scenarios shows a significant decrease in woodland area. (3) From 2020 to 2050, the carbon stocks in the study area under the three scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, all show different degrees of decline, decreasing to 36,405.0204 × 10⁴ t, 36,251.4402 × 10⁴ t, and 36,190.4066 × 10⁴ t, respectively. Restricting the conversion of land with a high carbon storage capacity to land with a low carbon storage capacity is conducive to the benign development of regional carbon storage. This study can provide a reference for the adjustment and management of future land-use structures in the region.