Muhammad Shafqat Ejaz

Agricultural intensification is increasing global demand for water, with groundwater especially susceptible given its year-round reliability. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge exacerbate uncertainties for future access and use, especially for large aquifers across alluvial plains such as the Indus Basin of Pakistan. To generate better understanding of climate change impacts on groundwater balances in such contexts, we used MODFLOW 2005 to quantify the groundwater budget of the Northern Rohri Canal Command Area under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climatic scenarios, while also taking climatic regionalisation into account. Under a baseline scenario, total annual pumping in the northern Rohri command was estimated to be 3.619 billion cubic metres (BCM), and the total net loss in storage over the simulation period from October 2010 to April 2014 was estimated at 1.244 BCM per year. By 2047, net decline in storage is projected to more than double to 2.185 per year under RCP 4.5 scenario and 2.214 under RCP 8.5. Our estimates suggest that a sustainable yield across the command area should be managed at approximately 3 ± 0.3 BCM per year to ensure sufficient adaptive reserves of groundwater for access during times of drought and inadequate surface supply, while also reducing waterlogging impacts from high watertables. This first-time estimate of sustainable yield provides irrigation system managers with an overall guide from which divisional-scale measures to achieve the goal can be identified through stakeholder engagement.

Amplified fragment length polymorphism markers were used to assess genetic diversity in 10 male sterile wheat crop lines (hetero-cytoplasm with the same nucleus) in relation to a restorer wheat line. These male sterile lines were evaluated using 64 amplified fragment length polymorphism primer combinations, and 13 primers produced polymorphic bands, generating a total 682 fragments. Of the 682 fragments, 113 were polymorphic. The polymorphic information content and marker index values demonstrated the utility of the primer combinations used in the present study. Unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean and principal coordinate analysis of the genotypic data revealed clustering of accessions based on genetic relationships, and accessions were separated into 2 groups with their restorer line. Jaccard's similarity coefficient values suggested good variability among the male sterile lines, indicating their utility in breeding programs. The fallouts of analysis of molecular variance showed large within-group population variation, accounting for 77% of variation, while among-group comparison accounted for 23% of the total molecular variation, which was statistically significant. The molecular diversity observed in this study will be useful for selecting appropriate accessions for plant improvement and hybridization through molecular-breeding approaches and for developing suitable conservation strategies.