Annabel Oosterwijk

Wildfire monitoring technologies are increasingly promoted as tools for faster detection and more effective prevention, yet evidence on their broader environmental, economic, and social implications remains fragmented. This paper evaluates the environmental, economic, and social impacts of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-based forest fire monitoring system supported by enhanced connectivity in an ex ante Lithuanian case study. A structured literature review was combined with a forward-looking empirical assessment comparing the proposed UAV system with fixed cameras, ground patrols, and helicopter surveillance within a common use-phase framework. The results show that fixed cameras have the lowest hourly environmental footprint and operational cost where permanent infrastructure is feasible. The UAV system performs less favourably than fixed cameras on these criteria, but substantially outperforms ground patrols and helicopter surveillance in terms of carbon emissions, biodiversity impact, and human health impact. Economically, UAV monitoring does not minimise routine hourly operating costs, yet it yields the highest avoided fire-related cost estimate per hectare, suggesting that its value lies in flexible, targeted monitoring rather than low-cost, continuous surveillance. Socially, stakeholders anticipated positive effects on technology development, economic development, and community engagement, although these effects remained conditional because the system had not yet been deployed. The findings indicate that UAVs should not be treated as a universal substitute for conventional monitoring methods, but rather as components of a broader, context-specific monitoring strategy. The study contributes an integrated comparison of prevention-oriented monitoring options in a field where environmental, economic, and social evidence is rarely assessed together.