Xu Wang

Aboveground biomass (AGB) is a sensitive indicator of grassland resource quality and ecological degradation. However, accurately estimating AGB at large scales to reveal long-term trends remains challenging. Here, single-factor parametric models, multi-factor parametric models, and multi-factor non-parametric models (Random Forest) were developed for three grassland types (alpine meadow, alpine grassland, and swampy meadow) in the Bayanbuluk Grassland using MODIS satellite data and environmental factors, including climate and topography. A 10-fold cross-validation method was employed to assess the accuracy and stability of these models, and an AGB remote sensing inversion model was established to estimate the AGB of the Bayanbuluk Grassland from 2005 to 2024. Moreover, the BEAST mutation test, Theil–Sen median trend analysis, and Mann–Kendall test were used to analyse the temporal trends of AGB, identify the years of mutation points, and explore the changes in AGB across the entire study period (2005–2024) and at 5-year intervals, considering the influence of climatic factors. The results indicated that the machine learning (RF) model outperformed both multi-factor parametric and single-factor parametric models, with specific improvements in R² and RMSE across all grassland types. For instance, the RF model achieved an R² of 0.802 in alpine grasslands, outperforming the multi-factor parametric model with an R² of 0.531. The overall spatial distribution of AGB exhibited heterogeneity, with a gradual increase from northwest to southeast over the study period. Interannual AGB changes fluctuated significantly, with an overall increasing trend. Notably, from 2015 to 2019, 78% of the Bayanbuluk Grassland area showed a nonsignificant increase in AGB. Specifically, 46.7% of the alpine meadow AGB, 23% of the alpine grassland AGB, and 8.3% of the swampy meadow AGB showed non-significant increases. Further, temperature was found to be the dominant driver of AGB, with a stronger effect on alpine meadows and alpine grasslands than on swampy meadows. This is likely due to the relatively constant moisture levels in the swampy meadows, where precipitation plays a more prominent role. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of AGB trends, including both spatial and temporal analyses, which will inform future grassland resource management.

Global changes in drought and wetness and their future trends in arid regions have recently become a major focus of research attention. The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Xinjiang, China, is among the most climate-sensitive regions in the world. This study uses data from the past 60 years (1962–2021) to analyze the spatial and temporal features of drought and wetness conditions in the TRB, calculating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Trend detection for SPEI is performed using the BEAST mutation test, identification of drought events using the theory of operations, and spatial and temporal analyses of dry and wet changes using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition. Additionally, the CMIP6 dataset is used to estimate future changes. The study results indicate the following: (1) From 1962 to 1998, the TRB exhibited a “warm and wet” trend that suddenly shifted from “wet-to-dry” in 1998 and subsequently transitioned to a pronounced “warm and dry” trend. (2) After the “wet-to-dry” shift, the frequency of drought events noticeably increased. The northern section of the basin witnessed more frequent drought events, albeit with lower severity, while the southern part had fewer occurrences but with higher severity. The spatial distribution of drought event frequency and severity is inconsistent. (3) The EOF decomposition results for SPEI-variable fields at 1-, 3-, and 6-month time scales show that the cumulative variance contribution rate of the first three principal spatial modal feature vectors exceeds 70%. The spatial distribution of the modes includes a consistent pattern across the entire basin, a north–south opposite pattern, and an east–west opposite pattern. (4) The future trend of drought in the TRB is expected to intensify, manifesting a spatial pattern characterized by dryness in the middle of the basin and wetness around the periphery. These research findings can provide support for decisions addressing regional drought risks.