Bern Igoche Igoche

Educational admission systems, particularly in developing countries, often suffer from opaque decision processes, unstructured data, and limited analytic insight. This study proposes a novel methodology that integrates structural causal models (SCMs), ontological modeling, and machine learning to uncover and apply interpretable knowledge from an admission database. Using a dataset of 12,043 records from Benue State Polytechnic, Nigeria, we demonstrate this approach as a proof of concept by constructing a domain-specific SCM ontology, validate it using conditional independence testing (CIT), and extract features for predictive modeling. Five classifiers, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were evaluated using stratified 10-fold cross-validation. SVM and KNN achieved the highest classification accuracy (92%), with precision and recall scores exceeding 95% and 100%, respectively. Feature importance analysis revealed ‘mode of entry’ and ‘current qualification’ as key causal factors influencing admission decisions. This framework provides a reproducible pipeline that combines semantic representation and empirical validation, offering actionable insights for institutional decision-makers. Comparative benchmarking, ethical considerations, and model calibration are integrated to enhance methodological transparency. Limitations, including reliance on single-institution data, are acknowledged, and directions for generalizability and explainable AI are proposed.