Luc Savard

A particularly interesting debate in developing countries is whether international economic integration (IEI) can help those nations maximize the economic and social impact of domestic development programs. This study adds value to this debate by constructing a dynamic CGE model for Guinea-Bissau. In this model, IEI can boost investment in Research and Development (R&D). In comparison to R&D programs or economic openness alone, foreign capital maximizes the impact of government spending on supporting firm innovation: the economy grows, and employment and household income increase. Income inequality decreases as employment opportunities for the low-income population increase. However, we observe skill-based technical changes that exacerbate income inequality within the group: unlike their urban counterparts, rural migrants have difficulty finding employment. These findings have significant policy implications. Investments in R&D in the agro-industrial sector in an open economy increase added value, contributing to increased aggregate productivity and social welfare.

The ‘Fit for 55’ policy package was presented in the European Commission’s Green Deal framework, comprising a set of proposals to improve existing energy and climate legislation. Among its main proposals was a revision of the European Union’s Emission Trading System to expand its sectoral coverage. Anticipating the possible loss of competitiveness with carbon pricing within the EU—which may lead to ‘carbon leakage’—a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) was included in the package. This scheme takes the form of an export tax levied by the European Union on some goods manufactured in non-carbon-taxing countries. In this paper, we provide a first-order estimate of the potential impact of CBAM on Morocco’s exports using an input–output approach. Our main findings suggest that the scheme would yield a carbon bill ranging from USD 20 to 34 million annually to Moroccan exporters in its initial phase. Morocco can mitigate such economic losses by instituting a national Emission Trading System, a tax reform, or speeding up the decarbonization of its economy.

This paper shows how a strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions combined with economic cycles can lead to particular consumption behaviours. We are assuming the existence of an “economic” demand for “non-green” goods and a “social” demand for “green” goods. We are also assuming the existence of a dispersion of household characteristics organised around an average profile in each class. In times of sustained economic recession, incomes of individual agents fall. Therefore, the budgetary constraint becomes stronger, and falling incomes will have a negative impact on the demand for “green” goods. Consumers with higher incomes will reduce their demand for “green” goods, creating pressure on prices and quantities. As consumers abandon the “green” goods market, they will switch to the “non-green” goods market, especially as prices are lower there, which will stimulate demand and create a new upward pressure on the demand for “non-green” goods.

Dans cet article, nous présentons les deux outils les plus utilisés pour analyser l’impact de réformes fiscales à savoir le coût marginal des fonds publics (CMFP) en équilibre partiel et les modèles d’équilibre général calculable (MEGC). Nous nous attardons ensuite aux MEGC et nous discutons leurs forces et faiblesses comme outils d’analyse économique. Puis, nous examinons quels comportements d’agents économiques sont principalement affectés par des réformes fiscales et comment ils peuvent être pris en compte dans les MEGC. Finalement, nous passons en revue un échantillon d’applications de modèles EGC appliqués à l’évaluation de l’impact de réformes fiscales sur l’efficacité et l’équité. Nous concluons avec quelques remarques sur la pertinence de la littérature quant aux politiques et nous formulons des recommandations sur la façon d’utiliser les modèles EGC pour apporter une contribution valide aux débats autour de réformes fiscales.

Mali has introduced a program to produce biodiesel using jatropha, a shrub widely available throughout the country. The aim of the program is to partially substitute diesel, which is entirely supplied through imports, with domestically produced biodiesel. In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a microsimulation model to analyze macroeconomic and distributional impact of a hypothetical expansion of jatropha based biodiesel industry in Mali. We find that the expansion of biodiesel industry (i.e., both jatropha farming and oil conversion), would increase GDP, though slightly, if idle lands are utilized for jatropha cultivation. However, the expansion of jatropha would cause slight loss in GDP if the existing agriculture land is used for jatropha cultivation. The distributional results are slightly different. We find that rural poverty would decrease no matter whether idle lands or existing agricultural lands are used for jatropha plantation, although the percentage reductions in rural poverty are higher in the former compared to the latter case. Our results indicate that if governments plan to promote jatropha biodiesel they should not allow jatropha to compete with food staples on the existing land. Policies should be targeted to utilize the idle lands which have not been used for any productive use.