Heshun Zhang
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Research Subjects
Research Interests
Heshun Zhang has a total of 10 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Chenggang Yang
Ningbo Water Resources Information Management Center, Ningbo 315000, China
1 shared publication - Feiyue Ding
Shaoxing Shunjiangyuan Provincial Nature Reserve Management Center, Shaoxing 312000, China
1 shared publication - Fusen Wei
Huzhou Hydrological Center, Huzhou 313000, China
1 shared publication - Hui Nie
School of Hydraulic Engineering, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou 310018, China
1 shared publication - Jiandong Ye
Tonglu County Jiangnan Irrigation District Project Management Office, Hangzhou 311500, China
1 shared publication - Saihua Huang
School of Hydraulic Engineering, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou 310018, China
1 shared publication
Latest Publications
- Open Access
Assessment of Hydrological and Meteorological Composite Drought Characteristics Based on Baseflow and Precipitation
Traditional univariate drought indices may not be sufficient to reflect comprehensive information on drought. Therefore, this paper proposes a new composite drought index that can comprehensively characterize meteorological and hydrological drought. In this study, the new drought index was established by combining the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized baseflow index (SBI) for the Jiaojiang River Basin (JRB) using the copula function. The prediction model was established by training random forests on past data, and the driving force behind the combined drought index was explored through the LIME algorithm. The results show that the established composite drought index combines the advantages of SPI and SBI in drought forecasting. The monthly and annual droughts in the JRB showed an increasing trend from 1991 to 2020, but the temporal characteristics of the changes in each subregion were different. The accuracies of the trained random forest model for heavy drought in Baizhiao (BZA) and Shaduan (SD) stations were 83% and 88%, respectively. Furthermore, the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) interpretation identified the essential precipitation, baseflow, and evapotranspiration features that affect drought. This study provides reliable and valid multivariate indicators for drought monitoring and can be applied to drought prediction in other regions.
Open AccessAssessment of Hydrological and Meteorological Composite Drought Characteristics Based on Baseflow and Precipitation
Traditional univariate drought indices may not be sufficient to reflect comprehensive information on drought. Therefore, this paper proposes a new composite drought index that can comprehensively characterize meteorological and hydrological drought. In this study, the new drought index was established by combining the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized baseflow index (SBI) for the Jiaojiang River Basin (JRB) using the copula function. The prediction model was established by training random forests on past data, and the driving force behind the combined drought index was explored through the LIME algorithm. The results show that the established composite drought index combines the advantages of SPI and SBI in drought forecasting. The monthly and annual droughts in the JRB showed an increasing trend from 1991 to 2020, but the temporal characteristics of the changes in each subregion were different. The accuracies of the trained random forest model for heavy drought in Baizhiao (BZA) and Shaduan (SD) stations were 83% and 88%, respectively. Furthermore, the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) interpretation identified the essential precipitation, baseflow, and evapotranspiration features that affect drought. This study provides reliable and valid multivariate indicators for drought monitoring and can be applied to drought prediction in other regions.