Irina Dyomina

Flood hazards have increasingly threatened the East Kazakhstan region in recent decades due to climate change and growing anthropogenic pressures, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This article considers an approach to modeling and forecasting river runoff using the example of the small Kurchum River in the East Kazakhstan region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the numerical performance of the flood hazard model by comparing simulated flood extents with observed flood data. Two types of data were used as initial data: topographic data (digital elevation models and topographic maps) and hydrological data, including streamflow time series from stream gauges (hourly time steps) and lateral inflows along the river course. Spatially distributed rainfall forcing was not applied. To build the model, we used the software packages of HEC-RAS version 5.0.5 and MIKE version 11. Using retrospective data for 3 years (2019–2021), modeling was performed, the calculated boundaries of possible flooding were obtained, and the highest risk zones were identified. A dynamic map of depth changes in the river system is presented, showing the process of flood wave propagation, the dynamics of depth changes, and the expansion of the flood zone. Temporal flood inundation mapping and performance metrics were evaluated for each individual flood event (2019, 2020, and 2021). The simulation outcomes closely correlate with actual flood events. The assessment showed that the model data coincide with the real ones by 91.89% (2019), 89.09% (2020), and 95.91% (2021). The obtained results allow for a clarification of potential flood zones and can be used in planning measures to reduce flood risks. This study demonstrates the importance of an integrated approach to modeling, combining various software packages and data sources.

JAIT is a scientific open access journal which focuses on empirical research results and critical analysis of technology development, use, management and impacts in information technology.

This paper explores the construction of a model for evaluating the digital ecosystem within a university, with a focus on identifying key factors influencing satisfaction with the implementation of new digital processes in the educational environment. The study employs mathematical methods, specifically factor analysis, to gauge the impact of these digital processes on the overall educational landscape. A questionnaire was designed to collect relevant data, and structural equation modeling, utilizing the asymptotically distribution-free estimation method with Grammian in STATISTICA software, was employed for survey result processing. The proposed model aims to provide insights into the dynamics of a university's digital ecosystem, offering a systematic approach to assess satisfaction levels and comprehend the implications of integrating novel digital processes within the educational framework. Mathematical methods, including factor analysis, add a quantitative dimension to the evaluation process, enabling a comprehensive understanding of the relationships between various factors. The study's methodology ensures a rigorous and systematic analysis of survey data, enhancing the reliability of the findings. The developed model and methodology contribute to advancing our understanding of the digitalization of university environments, providing valuable tools for decision-makers in shaping effective strategies for integrating digital processes in education. The study conducted a survey with 350 participants, including university staff and students. A questionnaire with 17 questions, both open and closed-ended, was developed to collect data. The authors employed structural equation modeling, specifically the asymptotically distribution-free estimation method, for data processing. The study's a posteriori model illustrates the structure of interaction factors influencing satisfaction with the university's digital ecosystem.