Xiangfu Wang

Ecological engineering (EE) has a profound impact on land-use dynamics, leading to alterations in ecosystem services (ESs). However, an appropriate EE implementation intensity that can balance the tradeoffs associated with altered ESs well has always been a concern for researchers and policymakers. In this study, we set the transition probability of farmland, bare land, and desertification land to forest and natural shrub, with 2010–2020 as the natural implementation scenario, as 10% for the low-intensity implementation scenario (LIS), 30% for the medium-intensity scenario, and 50% for the high-intensity scenario. The patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model was used to project land-use patterns and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to simulate changes in the quality of ESs under four EE implementation intensities in 2030. We then performed a quantitative tradeoff analysis on the dominant ESs under four scenarios and used the production possibility frontier (PPF) curve to identify the optimal EE implementation intensity scenario. Our results indicated that an increase in EE implementation intensity would lead to an increase in soil retention, water purification, habitat quality, and carbon storage, but also to a decrease in water yield, aggravating the tradeoffs between water yield and other ESs. In all EE implementation intensity scenarios, the LIS had the lowest tradeoff intensity index and balanced ESs well, and thus was the optimal EE implementation scenario in Qinghai province. Our results provide knowledge to help decision makers select the appropriate EE intensity to maintain sustainable development. The integrated methodology can also be applied in other conservation regions to carry out practical land management.