G. E. Hammond

Temperature-based methods have been developed to infer 1D vertical exchange flux between a stream and the subsurface. Current analyses rely on fitting physically based analytical and numerical models to temperature time series measured at multiple depths to infer daily average flux. These methods have seen wide use in hydrologic science despite strong simplifying assumptions including a lack of consideration of model structural error or the impacts of multidimensional flow or the impacts of transient streambed hydraulic properties. We performed a “perfect-model experiment” investigation to examine whether regression trees, with and without gradient boosting, can extract sufficient information from model-generated subsurface temperature time series, with and without added measurement error, to infer the corresponding exchange flux time series at the streambed surface. Using model-generated, synthetic data allowed us to assess the basic limitations to the use of machine learning; further examination of real data is only warranted if the method can be shown to perform well under these ideal conditions. We also examined whether the inherent feature importance analyses of tree-based machine learning methods can be used to optimize monitoring networks for exchange flux inference.

[1] To better inform the subsurface scientist on the expected performance of parallel simulators, this work investigates performance of the reactive multiphase flow and multicomponent biogeochemical transport code PFLOTRAN as it is applied to several realistic modeling scenarios run on the Jaguar supercomputer. After a brief introduction to the code's parallel layout and code design, PFLOTRAN's parallel performance (measured through strong and weak scalability analyses) is evaluated in the context of conceptual model layout, software and algorithmic design, and known hardware limitations. PFLOTRAN scales well (with regard to strong scaling) for three realistic problem scenarios: (1) in situ leaching of copper from a mineral ore deposit within a 5‐spot flow regime, (2) transient flow and solute transport within a regional doublet, and (3) a real‐world problem involving uranium surface complexation within a heterogeneous and extremely dynamic variably saturated flow field. Weak scalability is discussed in detail for the regional doublet problem, and several difficulties with its interpretation are noted.