Alexander Martin

Background and aims: The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019, a trend continuing through 2021 and 2022. This study aimed to quantify future health, healthcare, and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups. Results: In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario. Conclusions: Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England.

Introduction Anemia is a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that has been associated with increased risk of complications, healthcare expenditure, and reduced quality of life. In China, the treatment of anemia of CKD has been reported to be suboptimal in part because of a lack of awareness of the condition and its management. It is therefore important to raise awareness of the condition by estimating the future health and economic burden of anemia of CKD and also to understand how it may be addressed through proactive policies. This study aims to project the health and economic burden of anemia of CKD, in China, from 2023 to 2027 and to estimate the impact of a hypothetical intervention on related clinical and cost outcomes. Methods A virtual Chinese population was simulated using demographic, clinical, and economic statistics within a validated CKD microsimulation model. Each individual was assigned a CKD stage, anemia stage, comorbidity status (type 2 diabetes, hypertension), complication status (stroke, heart failure, and/or myocardial infarction), and a probability of receiving treatments and therapies. Annual direct healthcare costs were assigned and based on these factors. The hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia by 5% annually. This hypothetical scenario was chosen to highlight the impact of implementing policies that could reduce anemia of CKD, and is aligned with the Healthy China 2030 policy, which aims to reduce mortality from noncommunicable diseases by 30%. Interventions could consist of early screening and intervention to reduce the escalation of anemia from mild to moderate or severe. Results were compared with a baseline “no change” scenario which reflects current trends. Results The number of patients with moderate/severe anemia of CKD was projected to increase from 3.0 to 3.2 million patients, with associated costs increasing from ¥22.0 billion (B) to ¥24.4B between 2023 and 2027, respectively. Compared with the no change scenario, the hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia of CKD, saving ¥3.9B in healthcare costs in 2027 (¥24.4B vs ¥20.6B, respectively). Conclusions Consistent with trends in CKD burden in China, the prevalence of anemia of CKD is projected to increase, leading to greater related healthcare costs. The introduction of healthcare interventions designed to screen for and treat anemia more effectively could therefore reduce its future burden and related costs.

SUMMARY: На протяжении большей части XVIII века западные идеи лишь поверхностно затрагивали повседневную жизнь большинства россиян. Однако возникающее в начале XIX в. понятие “русскости” начинает формировать основу для институтов, практик, отношений и поведения, которая постепенно утвердилась среди всех слоев общества и оставалась стабильной на протяжении поколений, в некоторых случаях – вплоть до нашего времени. Кристаллизация “русскости” в определенной исторической форме не позволила реализоваться другим стратегиям, заложенным в заимствованных с Запада в XVIII в. представлениях, таким как более определенная ориентация на либеральный капитализм или идея принадлежности к западной цивилизации и общности исторического пути России и Запада. Распространение понятия “русскости”, таким образом, помогло придать большую стабильность и прочность российскому обществу, однако ограничило спектр возможных путей дальнейшего развития страны.