Arkaprabha Gun

While a range of interventions exists for tuberculosis (TB), their potential impact and cost-effectiveness are seldom directly compared across settings with different TB epidemiologies and structural drivers. Here we calibrated a deterministic TB model to epidemiological indicators from Brazil, India and South Africa. We implemented seven interventions across countries focusing on prevention, screening and diagnosis and treatment, as well as prison screening (Brazil) and nutritional supplementation (India). We standardized scale-up (2025–2030), coverage (80% of the target population) and strength of evidence using published efficacy data. We estimated the epidemiological impact and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), expressed as costs per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, through 2050. Only three interventions prevented >10% of incident TB episodes by 2050: vaccination (median 15–28% across countries), symptom-agnostic community-wide screening (31–38%) and prison screening (23%). Other interventions had limited impact, ranging from 0% (shorter drug-susceptible treatment) to 5% (nutritional supplementation). ICERs varied widely by intervention and setting. Shorter drug-resistant treatment was cost-saving across settings, with the next lowest ICERs for prison screening (US$146 per DALY) and nutritional supplementation (US$281 per DALY). Interventions with meaningful epidemiological impact can be cost-effective but must target populations beyond clinic-diagnosed individuals and their households. Achieving such potential requires a shift in priorities regarding funding, policy and product development.