María de Los Ángeles Sánchez Galván

This paper focuses on electricity demand forecasting and its uncertainty representation using a hybrid machine learning (ML) model in the eastern control area of southeastern Mexico. In this case, different sources of uncertainty are integrated by applying the Bootstrap method, which adds the characteristics of stochastic noise, resulting in a hybrid probabilistic and ML model in the form of a time series. The proposed methodology addresses a function density probability, which is the generalized of extreme values obtained from the errors of the ML model; however, it is adaptable and independent and simulates the variability that may arise due to unforeseen events. Results indicate that for a five-day forecast using only demand data, the proposed model achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.358%; however, incorporating temperature increases the MAPE to 5.123% due to growing uncertainty. In contrast, a day-ahead forecast, including temperature, improves accuracy, reducing MAPE to 1.644%. The stochastic noise component enhances probabilistic modeling, yielding a MAPE of 3.042% with and 2.073% without temperature in five-day forecasts. Therefore, the proposed model proves useful for regions with high demand variability, such as southeastern Mexico, while maintaining accuracy over longer time horizons.

This paper evaluates the impact of congestion on transmission lines when the operation cost is minimized using economic dispatch (ED), comparing the results obtained with the Nash–Cournot Equilibrium (NCE). A methodology is developed for the optimal power flow solution through the NCE, considering the network topology (upper and lower generation limits, upper and lower limits of the transmission lines, and power balance) for a nine-node system without and considering two bilateral power transactions. The results show that the operation cost is higher when the NCE is implemented than ED. However, the problem of congestion in the transmission lines is reduced due to the equilibrium obtained in the power dispatch against minimizing the operation cost in the dispatch; the transmission lines with the most significant participation tend to become congested when additional bilateral transactions occur. Finally, the above is verified by obtaining the mean and median of the transmission line percentages used in the two simulations.