Xinwei Guo

Under the context of urban–rural mobility driven by rapid urbanization, rural shrinkage is particularly pronounced in the developed regions of China, yet studies exploring its patterns and influencing factors are scarce. This paper uses Zhejiang Province as a case study to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of rural shrinkage from 2000 to 2020. By employing spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric modeling, the study investigates both population and spatial shrinkage. The findings reveal the following: (1) a marked spatiotemporal imbalance exists in population and spatial dynamics in Zhejiang’s rural areas, where the interplay between population and spatial shrinkage contributes to regional disparities. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population shrinkage shifted from a global shrinkage to a more localized decline in the northeast and southwest, while spatial shrinkage shifted from a global non-shrinkage to a focus on central and southwestern areas. (3) Urbanization significantly negatively impacts rural shrinkage, while the spatial spillover effect of urbanization is notably positive. In contrast, factors related to natural conditions, location, and agricultural investment show significant positive effects but also notable negative spatial spillover effects. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding rural shrinkage and offers valuable insights for rural development, infrastructure planning, and spatial governance.

The accessibility of the “last kilometre” of a tourist city has a profound impact on the travelling experience of tourists. In-depth understanding of the characteristics and spatial effects of the “last-kilometre” traffic accessibility in tourist cities is conducive to further enhancing the accessibility of traffic travel and forming a new industry development pattern of deep integration of traffic and tourism. The results show that: (1) Private transport accessibility is significantly better than public transport accessibility, and the strong economic strength of large cities such as Peking, Shanghai, and Nanjing support a wider coverage of public transport compared with cities such as Qinhuangdao, Dalian, Ningbo, etc. Even for the middle-income and high-income groups of the large cities, the advantage of the broader travelling cost of public transport is still significant. (2) The average values of the fluctuation coefficients of travel time of public transport in tourist cities are all smaller than those of private transport, and public transport is less sensitive to traffic congestion, making it a more reliable choice for tourist travel. The higher number of public transport grids with more anomalous fluctuations and much larger fluctuations than private transport grids suggests that there is an urgent need to strengthen the standardisation of public transport services in the corresponding areas. (3) Urban tourism development has been moving from single-line to network development, and the impact of urban transport on urban–regional tourism development has been manifested in the place fission effect, corridor diffusion effect, and regional equilibrium effect. In general, our findings have been useful in understanding the accessibility characteristics of the “last kilometre” in tourist cities, optimizing the efficiency of inter-regional and intra-city transport connections, constructing a fast and convenient travel transport system, improving the accessibility of transport trips, and forming a new development pattern for the deep integration of transport and tourism.