Frida Bengtsson

Climate change and other anthropogenic pressures are likely to induce tipping points in marine ecosystems, potentially leading to declines in primary productivity and fisheries. Despite increasing attention to nature-related financial risks and opportunities within the ocean economy, the extent to which these tipping points could affect investors has remained largely unexplored. Here we used satellite data to track fishing vessels operating in areas prone to marine regime shifts, and uncovered their corporate beneficial owners and shareholders.We found that about 30% of the oceans are at risk of regime shifts (extreme marine heat waves and signals of instability in primary productivity).16% of the oceans have shown abrupt declines in primary productivity, while 252 fish stocks resulted in abrupt declines on historical data. The literature already showcase past events with impacts on employment and economic losses on the millions of dollars. So who is at risk today?We found that 15% (16,878) of the vessels tracked in Global Fishing Watch fish in areas susceptible to marine regime shifts. We find that Norway and China are important actors in hosting many of the vessels and shareholders in our data, but they are not strongly involved on foreign investment. Spain, the UK and France are central countries of origin for foreign investment, while Russia is a hotspot attracting these investments. The likelihood of these financial flows seems to be related to differences in government effectiveness and political stability.We provided lists of top shareholders and top companies with vessel ownership fishing in areas prone to marine regime shifts, and discussed the limitations of our study mainly related to data transparency. Nonetheless, we hope these lists of companies and shareholders help to identify actors with agency to manage the risk of marine regime shifts. We discussed potential interventions that can reduce regime shifts risks. Redesigning subsidy programs, lobbying company boards to fish in low-risk areas, or supporting the implementation of international agreements that take into account potential range shifts and conflicts are just a few examples of how these actors can incentivise practices that are aligned with long term sustainability values.

A central barrier to effective governance and accountability in fisheries is the limited transparency of corporate ownership. Transshipment—the transfer of catches, fuel, parts, or crew between fishing and cargo vessels known as reefers—is often criticized for its opacity and poor governance. Better insight into the beneficial ownership of vessels involved in transshipment and their operational patterns could lead to more effective management. Our study presents a publicly accessible database of reefers’ owners, operators, and flags. We identified 569 individual reefers and found that Russian and Chinese owners control 26 and 20% of the global reefer fleet, respectively. Results also show that 65% of all reefer vessels fly the flags of Russia, Panama, or China. This high level of consolidation suggests considerable leverage for enhancing transparency and governance. Our findings highlight the potential for reforming existing transshipment practices through collaboration among owners, flag states, fishery regulators, and scientists.