Yueyuan Yang

As a strategic material second only to grain, cotton serves both as a vital agricultural commodity and a key industrial crop. With the increasing frequency of global shocks and the deepening financialization of commodity markets, price linkages among major international cotton futures markets have strengthened. Consequently, in addition to fundamental supply and demand factors, cross-border price transmission has become a significant determinant of cotton pricing. This study employs daily closing prices of China’s cotton futures, cotton yarn futures, and U.S. cotton futures from 1 September 2017 to 31 March 2025 to examine the spillover effects among these three futures markets using time series models. The results reveal that U.S. cotton futures have dominated the Chinese cotton-related futures markets even prior to the onset of trade tensions, with strong domestic market comovements. However, both the U.S.-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly weakened price co-movements while intensifying volatility spillovers. Although these external shocks enhanced the relative independence of China’s cotton yarn futures and modestly increased China’s pricing influence, U.S. cotton futures have consistently maintained their central role in price discovery.

Ensuring food security necessitates a high level of coordinated development between agricultural trade and production. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2023, this study constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural trade and production, employing an entropy-weighted TOPSIS model to measure their development levels. On this basis, a coupling coordination degree model and Moran’s I indices are used to analyze the coordinated development level’s temporal changes and spatial effects. The research finds that the development levels of China’s agricultural trade and production show an upward trend but currently still exhibit the pattern of higher levels in Eastern China and lower levels in Western China. The coupling coordination level between them demonstrates an increasing trend, yet the overall level remains relatively low, with an average value of only 0.445, consistently staying in a marginal disorder “running-in stage” and spatially presenting a distinct “east-high–west-low” stepped distribution pattern. Furthermore, from a spatial perspective, the Global Moran’s index decreased from 0.293 to 0.280. The coupling coordination degree of agricultural trade and production in China generally exhibits a positive spatial autocorrelation, but this effect has been weakening over time. Most provinces show spatial clustering characteristics of high–high and low–low agglomeration in local space, and this feature is relatively stable. Building on these insights, this study proposes a refinement of the coordination mechanisms between agricultural trade and production, alongside the implementation of differentiated regional coordinated development strategies, to promote the coupled and coordinated advancement of agricultural trade and production.

As an important carrier for the application of digital technologies, digital infrastructure plays a crucial role in promoting the digital transformation of the grain system and ensuring food security in the current era. This study utilizes panel data from 31 provinces (municipalities) in China, spanning the years from 2006 to 2022, and constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for grain system resilience, grounded in its core components of resistance, recovery, and transformation. The grain system resilience index is measured using the entropy method. A spatial Durbin model is employed to estimate the impact of digital infrastructure on grain system resilience, and a panel threshold model is used to analyze the nonlinear effects of digital infrastructure on grain system resilience. The research findings are as follows: (1) Both the direct and spatial spillover effects of digital infrastructure on grain system resilience are significantly positive, but considerable regional heterogeneity is observed. Due to differences in economic development levels, digital infrastructure investments, and policy priorities, the indirect and total effects of digital infrastructure on food system resilience are more pronounced in the southeast region, whereas the direct effects are more significant in the northwest region. (2) The threshold regression results show that when market integration is below the threshold value, the estimated coefficient of digital infrastructure is 0.2242, which is significant at the 1% significance level. When market integration is above the threshold value, the estimated coefficient of digital infrastructure is 0.0790, which is also significant at the 1% significance level. However, its regression coefficient significantly decreases, indicating that the impact of digital infrastructure on food system resilience will weaken as the degree of market integration increases. (3) The analysis of the attenuation boundary of spatial spillover effects shows that within a distance of 225 km, the estimated coefficients of the indirect effects of digital infrastructure on grain system resilience are positive and statistically significant at least at the 10% significance level. However, beyond 225 km, the regression coefficients become negative and insignificant, indicating that the effective boundary of the spillover effect of digital infrastructure on grain system resilience is 225 km, after which the spillover effect gradually diminishes. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the southeast region further strengthen regional digital governance collaboration to maximize spillover effects, whereas the northwest region should prioritize improving digital infrastructure and introduce digital technologies through models such as an “enclave economy” to bridge the digital divide. This study reveals the impact of digital infrastructure on grain system resilience and provides a new perspective for scientifically evaluating the spatial spillover effects of digital infrastructure.

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Enhancing the efficiency of fertilizer utilization and advancing fertilizer reduction efforts constitutes a pivotal initiative for augmenting the quality and productivity of the citrus industry; this constitutes an indispensable prerequisite for attaining green and sustainable development. Utilizing panel data from seven prominent mandarin-producing regions and seven prominent tangerine-producing regions in China spanning from 2002 to 2022, this study employed the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) method to develop a translog production function model for precisely measuring the fertilizer use efficiency for mandarins and tangerines. Employing the calculated optimal fertilizer use rates, we further ascertained the fertilizer reduction potential for mandarin and tangerine; then, we estimated the associated carbon emission reduction potential within these key citrus regions. The research revealed the following findings: the overall level of citrus fertilizer use efficiency in China is comparatively low, with the mean values for mandarin and tangerine fertilizer use efficiency being merely 0.4403 and 0.3887, respectively, indicating substantial room for improvement by approximately 60%; substantial potential exists for decreasing fertilizer use in China’s citrus industry, with average reduction potentials of 66.27% for mandarins and 64.83% for tangerines, signifying a notable redundancy in fertilizer application within major citrus-producing areas. The magnitude of carbon emission reduction potential through the diminution of citrus fertilizer use is tremendous. When optimal fertilizer rates are applied, the average carbon emission reductions resulting from fertilizer reduction in mandarins and tangerines amount to 815.8681 kg/hm² and 602.3551 kg/hm², respectively. The average carbon reduction potential for mandarins and tangerines reach levels of 55.9673% and 61.1299%, respectively, both surpassing the threshold of 55%. Significant differences exist in the technical efficiency of fertilizer input, reduction potential, and carbon emission mitigation potential among major citrus-producing regions. Citrus orchards in Guangdong exhibit higher potential for fertilizer reduction but demonstrate a relatively low level of technical efficiency. In contrast, Hunan Province shows an opposite trend, necessitating the development of region-specific strategies. Therefore, to minimize citrus fertilizer use and augment the technical efficiency of citrus fertilizer, it is imperative to comprehensively integrate and promote the “three new” technologies aimed at reducing fertilizer use and enhancing its efficiency within the citrus industry; implement a regional coordinated development strategy for citrus fertilizer reduction; and intensify policy guidance, publicity, and training efforts related to citrus fertilizer reduction, efficiency enhancement, and carbon emissions reduction.