Shuangqing Sheng

The spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem services and the elucidation of their driving mechanisms constitute a central scientific issue in territorial spatial optimization and regional sustainable development. Taking Gansu Province, a core area of the ecological security barrier in northwestern China, as the study area, this study integrates land-use, natural geographic, and socioeconomic data from 2000 to 2020. Using a land-use transfer matrix, the InVEST model, the Geographical Detector, and the PLUS model, we constructed a comprehensive analytical framework that combines historical evolution analysis, spatial differentiation identification, and multi-scenario simulation and prediction. The framework was used to systematically reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of four core ecosystem services, namely carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention service (SDR), and to analyze their natural and socioeconomic driving mechanisms, while also simulating land-use change and ecosystem-service responses under the natural development, ecological protection, and urban expansion scenarios in 2030. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, land use in Gansu Province was dominated by grassland (average proportion: 33.34%) and unused land (average proportion: 41.35%). Urban land expanded from 660.52 km² to 2227.36 km², with its share increasing from 0.15% to 0.50%, mainly through the conversion of cropland and grassland. Ecosystem services exhibited marked spatial differentiation: CS increased from east to west; WY showed an increasing pattern from northwest to southeast; HQ was lower in the central and southeastern regions and higher in the western and southern regions; and SDR was dominated by low-value areas in the northwest (average proportion: 84.81%). Driving-mechanism analysis indicated that slope was the core natural factor affecting CS, HQ, and SDR (q = 0.18–0.45), while mean annual precipitation dominated the variation in WY (q = 0.31–0.35). The influence of socioeconomic factors such as GDP increased gradually over time, showing an evolutionary trend from natural dominance to coordinated natural–socioeconomic regulation. Multi-scenario simulation further showed that, under the ecological protection scenario, grassland area increased significantly (+0.60%), the proportions of medium-value CS zones and high-value WY zones increased, and ecosystem services were optimized overall; under the urban expansion scenario, cropland and urban land expanded (+0.87% and +0.23%, respectively), imposing potential pressure on part of the ecosystem-service functions. These findings provide a scientific basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning, strengthening the ecological security barrier, and promoting regional sustainable development in Gansu Province. The methodological framework also offers a broadly applicable reference for ecologically sensitive arid and semi-arid regions in northwestern China.

Using She County, a national new-type urbanization comprehensive pilot area, as a case study, this research develops a multi-layered “static–dynamic–driver” analytical framework based on rural settlement data. By integrating GIS spatial overlay, landscape pattern indices, average nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density estimation, and cold–hotspot analysis, the study systematically characterizes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of rural settlements from 1980 to 2020. The results reveal that: (1) settlement evolution exhibits distinct phase-specific patterns, encompassing four primary types of transformation: localized expansion and consolidation, individual disappearance, rapid expansion, and the emergence of new settlements with peripheral extension; (2) landscape pattern and aggregation analyses indicate continuous growth in both total area and number of settlements, accompanied by increasing irregularity and fragmentation of patches; settlement size aggregation shows a fluctuating decline followed by recovery, overall spatial clustering intensity trends upward, and high-density kernel areas shift from the central–western to the northwestern region; (3) under multi-factor interactions, settlement layouts transitioned from an early “survival–location dependent” pattern dominated by natural constraints and transportation accessibility, to a mid-stage rapid aggregation driven by economic development and public service provision, ultimately evolving into a composite pattern balancing economic drivers and ecological constraints. The findings underscore the nonlinear superimposed effects of natural environment, economic development, transportation accessibility, public service availability, and ecological carrying capacity, providing a robust scientific basis for optimizing rural settlement spatial arrangements and informing rural development policy under the context of national new-type urbanization.

The Tibetan Plateau is highly sensitive to global climate change and characterized by pronounced ecological fragility, making vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) a key indicator for assessing ecosystem functioning and regional ecological security. This study aims to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of NPP and to disentangle the multiple natural and land-use drivers shaping its variability across the Tibetan Plateau. MODIS-derived NPP data for the period 2001–2022 are integrated with multi-source datasets on climate, topography, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land use (CLCD), and analyzed using trend and correlation analyses, land-use transfer matrices, an optimal-parameter geographical detector, and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The results indicate that NPP exhibits a significant but fluctuating upward trend (0.52 gC·m⁻²·a⁻¹, p < 0.01), with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest, the Yunnan Plateau evergreen broadleaf and pine forest region (VA5) and the southern Himalayan montane forest region (VA6) function as high-value centers, and regions such as the Kunlun high-cold desert region (HID1) represent low-value centers. The mutual conversion between forestland and grassland and bare land constitutes a key process driving regional NPP changes, with the net expansion of forestland making a substantial contribution to NPP increases (net gain of 2606.88 TgC). Geographic detector analysis indicates that NDVI (q = 0.741) and land use type (q = 0.741) are the primary factors governing the spatial differentiation of NPP, followed by precipitation, slope, and temperature. Moreover, interactions between any two factors enhance their explanatory power, with the interaction between aspect and land use type exhibiting the strongest effect (q approaching 1). PLS-SEM path analysis further quantifies the driving pathways, revealing that mean annual precipitation and land use type are the most direct drivers of NPP, while climatic and topographic factors influence NPP indirectly through their effects on vegetation cover and land use type. This study advances the understanding of the multifactorial driving mechanisms of ecosystem productivity on the Tibetan Plateau and provides a scientific basis for zoned and differentiated ecological restoration and climate adaptation strategies.

Oasis regions in arid northwestern China represent critical interfaces for watershed ecological security and rural sustainable development. However, under escalating resource constraints and intensifying human–land conflicts, the disorderly expansion of rural settlements has increasingly constrained high-quality territorial development. Liangzhou District, located in the transitional zone of the upper Heihe River Basin at the eastern end of the Hexi Corridor, provides a representative case for examining the spatial evolution of rural settlements in oasis environments. Using multi-temporal land-use data from 2000 to 2023, this study integrates landscape pattern metrics, kernel density estimation, and nearest-neighbor analysis to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of rural settlements. The Markov–CLUE-S model is further applied to simulate land-use changes under three scenarios for 2035: natural development, new urbanization, and ecological protection. Results indicate that the number of rural settlement patches increased from 1598 to 3009, while their total area expanded from 10,321.83 hm² to 20,828.34 hm², demonstrating a sustained expansion trend and a transition from scattered distribution to increasingly clustered patterns along urban centers and major transportation corridors. Scenario simulations suggest that rural settlement areas will decline by 5.27 km², 12.13 km², and 11.68 km² under the three respective scenarios, predominantly converting to cropland, grassland, and urban construction land. Model validation yields a Kappa coefficient of 0.88, confirming high simulation accuracy. This study develops an integrated “pattern evolution–driving mechanism–scenario response” analytical framework for rural settlement dynamics in arid oasis regions, highlighting the combined influences of environmental constraints and socio-economic drivers. The findings provide a scientific basis for rural spatial optimization and watershed-scale territorial governance in arid regions.

The evolution of landscape ecological risk in ecologically fragile areas constitutes a critical foundation for optimizing territorial spatial planning and ensuring ecological security. This study takes Zichang City as the research object and integrates the dynamic analysis of land use, landscape ecological risk assessment, and spatial simulation into a single framework. By analyzing the laws of land use change in Zichang City from 1980 to 2020, the CLUE-S model was used to predict land use change and ecological risks under multiple scenarios in 2035. Statistical and spatial analysis methods were comprehensively applied to verify the robustness and spatial differentiation characteristics of the risk assessment. Key findings indicate the following: (1) From 1980 to 2020, forest land, water bodies, and construction land in Zichang City continued to increase, while cultivated land and grassland tended to decrease. Multi-scenario simulations showed that under the business-as-usual scenario, grassland and forest land expanded; under the economic development scenario, urban land increased significantly; under the ecological protection scenario, grassland grew substantially, while cultivated land contracted noticeably. (2) The overall LERI from 1980 to 2020 first declined and then slightly rebounded, reflecting an “initial improvement followed by fluctuation” in ecological security, with a spatial pattern of “high in the central area, low in the periphery.” By 2035, high-risk levels remain predominant across scenarios, although the proportion of high-risk areas is limited. Monte Carlo simulation confirmed the robustness of the assessment (mean CV = 0.038). (3) Spatially, from 2020 to 2035, the clustering characteristics of LERI varied among scenarios; however, high–high and low–low clustering patterns remained predominant, indicating that spatial aggregation of ecological risk is relatively stable across scenarios. This study demonstrates that integrating landscape ecological risk assessment with land use scenario modeling provides robust scientific support for optimizing spatial planning and ecological security in ecologically fragile regions. The proposed framework offers methodological guidance and practical reference for identifying key risk areas and designing differentiated land use and risk management strategies in similar hilly–gully landscapes.

Urban green walking systems have emerged as a pivotal strategy to alleviate urban challenges, enhance public health, and promote sustainable urban development, garnering increasing attention across multiple disciplines. This study presents a comprehensive bibliometric review of literature published in the Web of Science Core Collection between 1998 and 2023, employing the R-based tool Bibliometrix (version 4.5.0) to analyze research output, scholarly contributions, and thematic evolution. Findings reveal an overall growth in publications, with the field progressing through nascent (1998–2016), rapid growth (2017–2020), and stable maturity (2021–2023) phases. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening recorded the highest number of publications, while Landscape and Urban Planning exhibited strong academic influence. China and the United States are leading contributors, though international collaboration rates suggest opportunities for broader global engagement. Core research themes center on health promotion, spatial planning, and social equity, reflecting interdisciplinary integration across environmental science, urban planning, and public health. Despite the formation of an emerging theoretical framework, gaps persist regarding research trajectory clarity, interdisciplinary depth, thematic synthesis, and methodological diversity. Future research should expand multilingual and multi-source datasets, integrate field-based investigations with quantitative modeling, and advance understanding of the mechanisms underpinning urban green walking systems, thereby informing evidence-based urban planning and the development of livable cities.

Historic and cultural villages in China are increasingly challenged by rapid urbanization, uneven commercial development, and fragmented preservation mechanisms. Understanding their spatiotemporal distribution and the factors shaping it is crucial for advancing the integrated development of cultural heritage conservation, ecological sustainability, and socio-economic growth. This study examines 487 historic and cultural villages using the nearest neighbor index (NNI) and kernel density analyses to reveal spatial differentiation patterns. Vector buffer analysis and the geographic detector method were further employed to identify the key drivers of village distribution. The results indicate that: (1) historic and cultural villages exhibit a distinctly clustered spatial pattern, characterized by “more in the southeast, fewer in the northwest; more in the northeast, fewer in the southwest” (NNI = 0.44, Z = –23.52, p = 0.00); (2) provincial-level spatial density demonstrates clear stratification, with high-density clusters concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, southern Anhui, the Fujian–Zhejiang–Jiangxi junction, and along the Yellow River in Shanxi–Shaanxi–Henan. From the fifth to seventh designation batches, kernel density peaks (maximum ~0.11 × 10⁻²) increased significantly, reflecting stronger spatial clustering; and (3) the spatial distribution of villages is jointly shaped by natural geography, socio-economic conditions, transportation infrastructure, visitor markets, and tourism resources. Among these, nighttime light intensity was identified as the most influential individual factor (q = 0.6132), while the combination of slope aspect and per capita disposable income emerged as the dominant factor pair (q = 0.966).

Food security constitutes a fundamental pillar of future sustainable development. A systematic evaluation of the impact of urban expansion on food security is critical to advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly “Zero Hunger” (SDG 2). Drawing on bibliographic data from the Web of Science Core Collection, this study employs the bibliometrix package in R to conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the literature on the “urban expansion–food security” nexus spanning from 1982 to 2024. The analysis focuses on knowledge production, collaborative structures, and thematic research trends. The results indicate the following: (1) The publication trajectory in this field exhibits a generally increasing trend with three distinct phases: an incubation period (1982–2000), a development phase (2001–2014), and a phase of rapid growth (2015–2024). Land Use Policy stands out as the most influential journal in the domain, with an average citation rate of 43.5 per article. (2) China and the United States are the leading contributors in terms of publication output, with 3491 and 1359 articles, respectively. However, their international collaboration rates remain relatively modest (0.19 and 0.35) and considerably lower than those observed for the United Kingdom (0.84) and Germany (0.76), suggesting significant potential for enhanced global research cooperation. (3) The major research hotspots cluster around four core areas: urban expansion and land use dynamics, agricultural systems and food security, environmental and climate change, and socio-economic and policy drivers. These focal areas reflect a high degree of interdisciplinary integration, particularly involving land system science, agroecology, and socio-economic studies. Collectively, the field has established a relatively robust academic network and coherent knowledge framework. Nonetheless, it still confronts several limitations, including geographical imbalances, fragmented research scales, and methodological heterogeneity. Future efforts should emphasize cross-regional, interdisciplinary, and multi-scalar integration to strengthen the systematic understanding of urban expansion–food security interactions, thereby informing global strategies for sustainable development.

The accelerating process of global urbanization has substantially reshaped land use patterns, exerting profound influences on the dynamics of ecosystem service provision. Effective and adaptive ecosystem management necessitates the quantitative identification and analysis of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their underlying driving mechanisms. Using the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, this research examines land use dynamics from 2000 to 2020 and projects land use patterns for 2030 under alternative development scenarios. Building upon this foundation, the study quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of four key ecosystem services—Carbon Storage (CS), Water Yield (WY), Habitat Quality (HQ), and Soil Retention (SDR)—from 2000 to 2030, while elucidating the differential impacts and underlying mechanisms of the driving factors on these services. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, cultivated land remained the dominant land use type (47.71%), followed by forestland (21.44%) and grassland (16.23%), whereas built-up land expanded significantly from 8.12% to 12.74%; (2) the proportion of medium-to-high CS areas reached 47.65%, high-value WY areas increased by 4.9%, low-value HQ areas expanded by 4.28%, and low-value SDR areas accounted for 84.44%; (3) the PLUS model validation yielded a Kappa coefficient of 86.1%, indicating high simulation accuracy. Scenario-based predictions suggest that under an ecological protection scenario, the proportion of medium-to-high CS areas would increase by 0.59%, whereas under an economic development scenario, these areas would decline by 2.57%, with low-value HQ areas expanding by 2.04%; (4) slope (X₂) was identified as the dominant factor influencing CS (q = 0.22), HQ (q = 0.36–0.42), and SDR (q = 0.42), while mean annual precipitation (X₄) played a crucial role in determining WY. Furthermore, socioeconomic activities, particularly increasing population density, exhibited a growing negative impact on HQ and CS, highlighting the intensifying role of anthropogenic interventions in shaping ecosystem service patterns. This study unveils the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services and their driving mechanisms in the context of urbanization, offering valuable insights to inform regional ecological conservation and sustainable development policies.

As global urbanization advances, the expansion of urban land has subjected cities to increasingly frequent and extensive external disturbances, often revealing limitations in disaster prevention and mitigation capacities, particularly in regions characterized by high urbanization, environmental degradation, and recurrent natural disasters. This study investigates the association between urban land expansion and urban resilience, developing a targeted analytical framework to assess their coupling and coordination. Leveraging remote sensing data on land use and socio-economic development indicators, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index encompassing social, economic, ecological, and infrastructural dimensions. Examining three principal urban agglomerations in China’s Yangtze River Basin, we analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics and rates of change in urban land area and resilience levels from 2000 to 2020. A coupling coordination model was applied to assess the alignment between the rate of urban land expansion and resilience improvement, ultimately aiming to derive actionable policy recommendations. The results demonstrate that: (1) both the intensity and rate of urban land expansion across urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin have declined, indicating a shift in urbanization focus from “land expansion” to “quality enhancement,” with a slowdown in the conversion of agricultural to urban land. (2) Urban land expansion exhibits weak directionality, with land expansion occurring uniformly within the region. (3) On the whole, resilience levels in the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations remain moderate or lower, although showing gradual improvement. (4) The coordination between urban land area and urban resilience across the basin is limited, with a declining alignment between urban land expansion and resilience enhancement rates, signaling an emerging imbalance. By assessing the coordination between urban land expansion and resilience, this study seeks to inform policy development on urban land management and resilience enhancement within the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations.