Mohd S. Mahafdah

The Dead Sea, the Earth’s lowest major surface water body, serves as the terminal basin for surface and groundwater flow in its surrounding region. However, anthropogenic activities and natural processes contribute to significant alterations in the lake’s area. The scope and implications of these changes remain insufficiently documented, necessitating further investigation. The CA-Markov model was used to project the Dead Sea’s surface area for 2034 and 2050. Time series of observed and future climate data, especially temperature data, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were analyzed to track climate change. Statistical analyses of the Kendall correlation matrix were performed on the observed and predicted surface areas, water levels, and temperatures. This study revealed that the Dead Sea decreased by 41.8% from 1971 to 2022, and the sea level is expected to decrease by 12.63 m and 33 m by 2034 and 2050, respectively. In addition, there were significant inverse relationships between surface area, water level, and temperature, with correlations of r = −0.79 (p = 0.001) and r = −0.82 (p = 0.001), respectively. Notably, from 2022 to 2050, the mean annual temperature is expected to increase by at least 1 °C. The long-term strategic vision for stabilizing Dead Sea water levels involves a twofold approach: (1) augmenting natural inflow by introducing 300–400 million cubic meters (MCM) from manufactured sources and channeling them into the Jordan River, and (2) reducing water extraction by Dead Sea industries by a maximum of 330 MCM.