Marcelo Oyaneder

Severe wintertime particulate pollution (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) affects the Santiago Metropolitan Region in Chile and is intensified by basin topography and frequent thermal inversions. Local authorities rely on the Critical Episodes Management (CEM) forecasting system, yet its predictive performance is variable. This study assesses CEM to identify operational vulnerabilities and propose data-driven improvements for urban air-quality governance. About ~1.2 million hourly meteorological and air-quality records (2017–2022) were analyzed using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to characterize key nonlinear relationships, and we evaluated the operational skill of the Cassmassi-1 PM₁₀ model and the WRF-Chem-based PM_2.5 forecasting component used by the system. Cassmassi-1 missed more than 50% of critical episodes and showed a false-alarm rate above 60%, consistent with limitations associated with static or incomplete emission representations. By contrast, the WRF-Chem-based component achieved episode prediction accuracy above 70%. GAM results indicate that wind speeds below 2 m s⁻¹, high diurnal temperature range, and relative humidity below 65% are strongly associated with extreme events. Considering the results, we recommend transitioning to nonlinear forecasting approaches that explicitly incorporate these meteorological thresholds and vertical stability indicators to improve alert reliability, strengthen urban resilience, and reduce population exposure.

This study optimizes the production of activated carbons from hydrothermally carbonized (HTC) biomass using potassium hydroxide (KOH) and phosphoric acid (H₃PO₄) as activating agents. A 2³ factorial experimental design evaluated the effects of agent-to-precursor ratio, dry impregnation time, and activation duration on mass yield and iodine adsorption capacity. KOH-activated carbons achieved superior iodine numbers (up to 1289 mg/g) but lower mass yields (18–35%), reflecting enhanced porosity at the cost of material loss. Conversely, H₃PO₄ activation yielded higher mass retention (up to 54.86%) with moderate iodine numbers (up to 1117.3 mg/g), balancing porosity and yield. HTC pretreatment at 190 °C reduced the ash content, thereby enhancing the stability of hydrochar. These findings highlight the trade-offs between adsorption performance and process efficiency, with KOH suited for high-porosity applications (e.g., water purification) and H₃PO₄ for industrial scalability. The study advances biomass waste valorization, aligning with circular economy principles and offering sustainable solutions for environmental and industrial applications, such as water purification and energy storage.

The 2023–2024 blackouts in Quito, Ecuador, led to severe air quality deterioration, primarily driven by diesel generator use and increased vehicular traffic. This study analyzed data from seven urban and peri-urban monitoring stations, applying meteorologically normalized data and machine learning models (Boosted Regression Trees and Random Forests) to isolate the direct impact of blackouts on pollutant concentrations. The results revealed that PM₁₀ increased by up to 45% and PM_2.5 by 30%, frequently exceeding regulatory limits, particularly in industrial and residential zones. SO₂ exhibited the most extreme rise, surging by 390%, with peak values reaching 500 µg/m³ in areas heavily reliant on high-sulfur diesel generators. The NO₂ concentrations exceeded 200 µg/m³ in high-traffic areas, while O₃ showed dual behavior, decreasing in urban cores due to titration effects but increasing by 15% in suburban valleys, driven by photochemical interactions. A comparison between 2023 and 2024 blackouts highlighted worsening pollution trends, with longer (8–12 h) outages in 2024 causing severe environmental impacts. The findings demonstrate that blackouts significantly worsen air quality, posing critical public health risks. This study underscores the urgent need for policy interventions to mitigate the environmental impact of energy disruptions. Key recommendations include stricter fuel quality standards, diesel generator emission controls, and an accelerated transition to renewable energy. These results provide scientific evidence for future environmental regulations, supporting sustainable air quality management strategies to minimize future energy crises’ health and ecological consequences.

In this comprehensive analysis of Chile’s air quality dynamics spanning 2016 to 2021, the utilization of data from the National Air Quality Information System (SINCA) and its network of monitoring stations was undertaken. Quintero, Puchuncaví, and Coyhaique were the focal points of this study, with the primary objective being the construction of predictive models for sulfur dioxide (SO₂), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀). A hybrid forecasting strategy was employed, integrating Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), incorporating external covariates such as wind speed and direction to enhance prediction accuracy. Vital monitoring stations, including Quintero, Ventanas, Coyhaique I, and Coyhaique II, played a pivotal role in data collection and model development. Emphasis on industrial and residential zones highlighted the significance of discerning pollutant origins and the influence of wind direction on concentration measurements. Geographical and climatic factors, notably in Coyhaique, revealed a seasonal stagnation effect due to topography and low winter temperatures, contributing to heightened pollution levels. Model performance underwent meticulous evaluation, utilizing metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Ljung-Box statistical tests, and diverse statistical indicators. The hybrid ARIMA-ANN models demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, boasting an R² exceeding 0.90. The outcomes underscored the imperative for tailored strategies in air quality management, recognizing the intricate interplay of environmental factors. Additionally, the adaptability and precision of neural network models were highlighted, showcasing the potential of advanced technologies in refining air quality forecasts. The findings reveal that geographical and climatic factors, especially in Coyhaique, contribute to elevated pollution levels due to seasonal stagnation and low winter temperatures. These results underscore the need for tailored air quality management strategies and highlight the potential of advanced modeling techniques to improve future air quality forecasts and deepen the understanding of environmental challenges in Chile.