Hongyu Guo

This study proposes an explainable extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model for predicting the international roughness index (IRI) and identifying the key influencing factors. A comprehensive dataset integrating multiple data sources, such as structure, climate and traffic load, is constructed. A voting-based feature selection strategy is adopted to identify the key influencing factors, which are used as inputs for the prediction model. Multiple machine learning (ML) models are trained to predict the IRI with the constructed dataset, and the XGBoost model performs the best with the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) reaching 0.778. Finally, interpretable techniques including feature importance, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) and partial dependency plots (PDPs) are employed to reveal the mechanism of influencing factors on IRI. The results demonstrate that climate conditions and traffic load play a critical role in the deterioration of IRI. This study provides a relatively universal perspective for IRI prediction and key factor identification, and the outputs of the proposed method contribute to making scientific maintenance strategies of roads to some extent.