Xuemei Luo

This study addresses the coupled influence of the threshold pressure gradient and stress sensitivity during the seepage process in low-permeability reservoirs. By integrating Laplace transform, perturbation transform, the image principle, and the superposition principle, a non-steady-state seepage model for segmented-fractured horizontal wells considering both effects is established for the first time. The analytical solution of the point source function including the threshold pressure gradient ($\lambda$) and stress sensitivity effect (permeability modulus $\alpha$) is innovatively derived and extended to closed-boundary reservoirs. The model accuracy is verified by CMG numerical simulation (with an error of only 1.02%). Based on this, the seepage process is divided into four stages: I linear flow (pressure derivative slope of 0.5), II fracture radial flow (slope of 0), III dual radial flow (slope of 0.36), and IV pseudo-radial flow (slope of 0). Sensitivity analysis indicates the following: (1) The threshold pressure gradient significantly increases the seepage resistance in the late stage (the pressure curve shows a significant upward curvature when $\lambda$ = 0.1 MPa/m); (2) Stress sensitivity dominates the energy dissipation in the middle and late stages (a closed-boundary-like feature is presented when $\alpha$ > 0.1 MPa⁻¹); (3) The half-length of fractures dominates the early flow (a 100 m fracture reduces the pressure drop by 40% compared to a 20 m fracture). This model resolves the accuracy deficiency of traditional single-effect models and provides theoretical support for the development effect evaluation and well test interpretation of fractured horizontal wells in low-permeability reservoirs.