Gabriela Cruz-Piñón

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are shaped by strong climatic and edaphic constraints, including pronounced rainfall seasonality, extended dry periods, and shallow karst soils with limited water retention. Understanding how tree species respond to these pressures is crucial for predicting ecosystem resilience under climate change. In the Yucatán Peninsula, we characterized sixteen tree species along a spatial and seasonal precipitation gradient, quantifying wood density, predawn and midday water potential, saturated and relative water content, and specific leaf area. Across sites, diameter classes, and seasons, we measured ≈4 individuals per species (n = 319), ensuring replication despite natural heterogeneity. Using a principal component analysis (PCA) based on individual-level data collected during the dry season, we identified five functional groups spanning a continuum from conservative hard-wood species, with high hydraulic safety and access to deep water sources, to acquisitive light-wood species that rely on stem water storage and drought avoidance. Intermediate-density species diverged into subgroups that employed contrasting strategies such as anisohydric tolerance, high leaf area efficiency, or strict stomatal regulation to maintain performance during the dry season. Functional traits were strongly associated with precipitation regimes, with wood density emerging as a key predictor of water storage capacity and specific leaf area responding plastically to spatial and seasonal variability. These findings refine functional group classifications in heterogeneous karst landscapes and highlight the value of trait-based approaches for predicting drought resilience and informing restoration strategies under climate change.

Small-scale, multispecific fisheries in the Gulf of California face significant challenges including limited species-specific catch data, uncertainty about climate change impacts, and insufficient biological information needed for traditional deterministic models. These knowledge gaps hamper efforts to forecast future conditions and develop appropriate management strategies accurately. The complexity of these multi-species fisheries, combined with data scarcity for many target species, creates substantial barriers to quantifying and addressing climate vulnerability. Deep learning approaches offer a promising alternative by leveraging available data to identify patterns and project trends despite these limitations, providing valuable insights for fisheries management in data-poor contexts. Here, we apply a Mixture of Expert, a deep learning forecasting models for small-scale, multi-specific fisheries in the Gulf of California under future climate change scenarios. Results show varied responses across marine habitats, with reef and benthic fish projected to experience substantial declines (-12.46% and -9.37%) during the 2050s-2060s, followed by recovery in the 2070s-2080s. Economic implications are significant, with reef fish facing projected losses of $1.2 million by the 2050s before recovering by the 2080s. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis was applied to evaluate the importance of features for each predictive model, the analysis revealed the effects of the temperature in different depths for each fishery, and the sensitive analysis pointed to the magnitude of the effect. Our findings suggest that climate impacts will not be uniform across the Gulf, necessitating region-specific management approaches and highlighting the value of maintaining diverse fishing portfolios to enhance resilience against climate-driven changes.