Samuel Ephraim

Closed-to-open cell mixed-phase cloud transitions within marine cold air outbreaks remain poorly understood despite their importance to high-latitude climate. The Cold-Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR) research aircraft sampled a cold and polluted closed-to-open cell transition with cloud-top temperatures below −20 °C and upstream cloud condensation nuclei concentrations surpassing 600 cm ⁻³ . The aerosol likely originates from Siberian industrial emissions. As the boundary layer deepens prior to and across the transition, driven by strong turbulent surface fluxes and aided by a weakening cloud-top inversion, aerosol number concentrations decrease and supercooled droplet sizes increase, causing ice particles to shift from primarily vapor depositional growth towards riming. Precipitation shafts within open-cells contain abundant large graupel (>5 mm diameter) with liquid-equivalent precipitation intensities reaching 3 mm h ⁻¹ . Ice precipitation co-exists with lidar-observed surface cold pools, modulated by entrainment events, juxtaposed with surface-based plumes of warm moist air. Updrafts support liquid water production along convergence boundaries at the upwind cold pool edge. Nonetheless, strong buoyancy fluxes exceeding 200 W m ⁻² prevent sub-cloud decoupling. Ice particle number concentrations increase tenfold across the transition, surpassing 10 L ⁻¹ within open-cells, more than 1000× ice nucleating particle number concentrations. Given that cloud temperatures are too cold for Hallett-Mossop rime splintering, this indicates the importance of other secondary ice production mechanisms. This case expands the observations needed to better understand mixed-phase Arctic cloud processes.

Closed-to-open cell mixed-phase cloud transitions within marine cold air outbreaks subjected to strong turbulent surface fluxes remain poorly understood despite their importance to high-latitude climate. The Cold-Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR) research aircraft sampled closed-cells with cloud condensation nuclei concentrations surpassing 680 cm^-3, decreasing to 90 cm^-3 across a transition to open-cells. The aerosol likely originated from Siberian industrial emissions. With fetch, liquid water paths (LWPs) increase from 120 g m^-2 to 270 g m^-2 and cloud-top effective diameters increase from 10 μm to 16 μm, coincident with more riming. Ice particle number concentrations (N_i) are generally 2 L^-1 or less, but exceed ice nucleating particle number concentrations by 100x. As the cloud-top inversion weakens and the boundary layer deepens further, ice precipitation co-exists with lidar-observed surface cold pools, modulated by entrainment events, juxtaposed with surface-based plumes of warm moist air. Open-cells contain isolated LWP peaks surpassing 500 g m^-2 collocated with strong updrafts, adjacent to glaciated cloud. N_i surpasses 10 L^-1 at cloud temperatures < -15 °C. Precipitation shafts contain abundant large graupel (> 5 mm diameter) with liquid-equivalent precipitation intensities reaching 3 mm hr^-1 developing cold pools with virtual potential temperature depressions reaching 1.3 K. Nonetheless, buoyancy fluxes of 200-250 W m^-2 prevent sub-cloud decoupling. The updrafts supporting liquid water production occur at the upwind edge of the cold pools. This case expands the observations needed to better understand mixed-phase Arctic cloud processes.

Closed-to-open cell mixed-phase cloud transitions within marine cold air outbreaks subjected to strong turbulent surface fluxes remain poorly understood despite their importance to high-latitude climate. The Cold-Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR) research aircraft sampled closed-cells with cloud condensation nuclei concentrations surpassing 680 cm^-3, decreasing to 90 cm^-3 across a transition to open-cells. The aerosol likely originated from Siberian industrial emissions. With fetch, liquid water paths (LWPs) increase from 120 g m^-2 to 270 g m^-2 and cloud-top effective diameters increase from 10 μm to 16 μm, coincident with more riming. Ice particle number concentrations (N_i) are generally 2 L^-1 or less, but exceed ice nucleating particle number concentrations by 100x. As the cloud-top inversion weakens and the boundary layer deepens further, ice precipitation co-exists with lidar-observed surface cold pools, modulated by entrainment events, juxtaposed with surface-based plumes of warm moist air. Open-cells contain isolated LWP peaks surpassing 500 g m^-2 collocated with strong updrafts, adjacent to glaciated cloud. N_i surpasses 10 L^-1 at cloud temperatures < -15 °C. Precipitation shafts contain abundant large graupel (> 5 mm diameter) with liquid-equivalent precipitation intensities reaching 3 mm hr^-1 developing cold pools with virtual potential temperature depressions reaching 1.3 K. Nonetheless, buoyancy fluxes of 200-250 W m^-2 prevent sub-cloud decoupling. The updrafts supporting liquid water production occur at the upwind edge of the cold pools. This case expands the observations needed to better understand mixed-phase Arctic cloud processes.

Closed-to-open cell mixed-phase cloud transitions within marine cold air outbreaks subjected to strong turbulent surface fluxes remain poorly understood despite their importance to high-latitude climate. The Cold-Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR) research aircraft sampled closed-cells with cloud condensation nuclei concentrations surpassing 680 cm^-3, decreasing to 90 cm^-3 across a transition to open-cells. The aerosol likely originated from Siberian industrial emissions. With fetch, liquid water paths (LWPs) increase from 120 g m^-2 to 270 g m^-2 and cloud-top effective diameters increase from 10 μm to 16 μm, coincident with more riming. Ice particle number concentrations (N_i) are generally 2 L^-1 or less, but exceed ice nucleating particle number concentrations by 100x. As the cloud-top inversion weakens and the boundary layer deepens further, ice precipitation co-exists with lidar-observed surface cold pools, modulated by entrainment events, juxtaposed with surface-based plumes of warm moist air. Open-cells contain isolated LWP peaks surpassing 500 g m^-2 collocated with strong updrafts, adjacent to glaciated cloud. N_i surpasses 10 L^-1 at cloud temperatures < -15 °C. Precipitation shafts contain abundant large graupel (> 5 mm diameter) with liquid-equivalent precipitation intensities reaching 3 mm hr^-1 developing cold pools with virtual potential temperature depressions reaching 1.3 K. Nonetheless, buoyancy fluxes of 200-250 W m^-2 prevent sub-cloud decoupling. The updrafts supporting liquid water production occur at the upwind edge of the cold pools. This case expands the observations needed to better understand mixed-phase Arctic cloud processes.

Closed-to-open cell mixed-phase cloud transitions within marine cold air outbreaks subjected to strong turbulent surface fluxes remain poorly understood despite their importance to high-latitude climate. The Cold-Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR) research aircraft sampled closed-cells with cloud condensation nuclei concentrations surpassing 680 cm-3, decreasing to 90 cm-3 across a transition to open-cells. The aerosol likely originated from Siberian industrial emissions. With fetch, liquid water paths (LWPs) increase from 120 g m-2 to 270 g m-2 and cloud-top effective diameters increase from 10 μm to 16 μm, coincident with more riming. Ice particle number concentrations (Ni) are generally 2 L-1 or less, but exceed ice nucleating particle number concentrations by 100x. As the cloud-top inversion weakens and the boundary layer deepens further, ice precipitation co-exists with lidar-observed surface cold pools, modulated by entrainment events, juxtaposed with surface-based plumes of warm moist air. Open-cells contain isolated LWP peaks surpassing 500 g m-2 collocated with strong updrafts, adjacent to glaciated cloud. Ni surpasses 10 L-1 at cloud temperatures < -15 °C. Precipitation shafts contain abundant large graupel (> 5 mm diameter) with liquid-equivalent precipitation intensities reaching 3 mm hr-1 developing cold pools with virtual potential temperature depressions reaching 1.3 K. Nonetheless, buoyancy fluxes of 200-250 W m-2 prevent sub-cloud decoupling. The updrafts supporting liquid water production occur at the upwind edge of the cold pools. This case expands the observations needed to better understand mixed-phase Arctic cloud processes.

Cold-air outbreaks over high latitude oceans typically include mixed-phase clouds and precipitation, in particular supercooled liquid clouds that support snow and graupel through ice growth processes. The partitioning of the total water into the liquid and ice phases impacts both weather and climate prediction, but accurate measurements on the phase partitioning remain difficult to acquire, especially near-real-time. Here we present a machine learning approach to retrieve liquid water path (LWP) using passive microwave measurements combined with vertically-integrated radar reflectivities. The approach is an extension of Cadeddu et al. (2009), with the novel addition of radar reflectivity. The machine learning models are trained using the Passive and Active Microwave radiative TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) code applied to output from numerical simulations of three independent cold-air outbreaks sampled during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) campaign. Brightness temperatures corresponding to the four sidebands of an upward-looking G-band (183 GHz) Vapor Radiometer, along with the vertically-integrated reflectivity from a zenith-pointing 95 GHz Wyoming Cloud Radar, are simulated from the perspective of a near-surface aircraft track. The radar reflectivity helps discriminate the snow contribution to the brightness temperatures. The machine learning models are thereafter tested on a simulation of an independent cold-air outbreak during COMBLE, and against measurements from the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement North Slope of Alaska observatory. This machine learning approach is shown to provide robust, computationally-efficient, near-real-time measurements of LWP and water vapor path during the Cold Air Outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR) campaign in February-April 2024.