Hashim Jabbar Hussein

This study examines the dynamic interactions among gross domestic product (GDP), external public debt, and domestic public debt in Iraq and discusses their implications for fiscal sustainability. The observed annual data cover the period 2005–2024, while the values for 2025 are based on IMF projections. Because continuous official monthly observations were unavailable, the annual series were temporally disaggregated using cubic-spline interpolation to construct an analytical monthly series. These interpolated values do not represent additional independent observations; therefore, the empirical findings are interpreted as exploratory. A recursive Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model was estimated using Cholesky identification with the ordering GDP, external debt, and domestic debt. The variables were transformed into second differences in their natural logarithms, and a three-lag specification was employed. Impulse-response functions and forecast-error variance decomposition were used to examine the transmission and relative importance of the identified innovations. At the 24-month forecast horizon, GDP shocks explained 93.3% of GDP variation, while external debt was predominantly explained by its own shocks (86.3%). Domestic-debt variation was explained by its own shocks (47.3%), GDP shocks (44.1%), and external-debt shocks (8.6%). These results suggest that domestic debt is more closely associated with changes in domestic economic activity, whereas external debt follows a comparatively persistent path. The findings emphasize the importance of debt composition, non-oil revenue diversification, expenditure management, and coordination between domestic and external borrowing. Because oil revenues and government expenditure are not included as separate endogenous variables, the model does not directly identify oil-revenue or government-spending shocks. Future research should employ genuinely observed quarterly or monthly data and incorporate these fiscal variables explicitly.

This article aims to study the optimality of government investment in capital accumulation in the Iraqi economy, focusing on the impact of taxes and non-oil revenues. The research problem lies in the fact that government spending, despite its increase after 2004, did not contribute sufficiently to raising the efficiency of the Iraqi economy and achieving social justice. The researcher used a number of statistical programs, namely (Microsoft Excel vs. 16, SPSS VS. 25, Eviews Vs. 12, Smart Pls 4). The results showed that increasing taxes negatively affects investment decisions, which hinders capital accumulation and reduces the efficiency of government spending, which requires improving investment efficiency and directing resources towards productive sectors such as agriculture and industry. The research came out with a number of recommendations, the most important of which is re-evaluating the tax system to reduce tax rates and enhance tax exemptions for investors, which contributes to attracting investment and achieving sustainable development. Balanced tax policies should also be formulated to ensure the achievement of government revenues without a significant negative impact on capital accumulation

Objectives: The research aims to investigate the significant role of natural gas in the Iraqi economy, focusing on the economic impact of burning natural gas. The study addresses the problem of underutilization of Iraq's natural gas resources, emphasizing the potential benefits of investing in Iraqi natural gas instead of burning it. The central hypothesis suggests that redirecting the use of Iraqi natural gas associated with oil toward investment, rather than burning it, could help provide large quantities of natural gas for local consumption and reduce the need for imports. This approach could also optimize the economic contribution of Iraq's natural gas reserves, which remain largely underexploited. Methods: The research uses quantitative methods to analyze the relationships between various factors, including the European gas prices, the value of gas produced, the value of gas consumed, the value of burned gas, and their effects on oil revenues. The study adopts an econometric approach, applying a standard model based on economic theory to evaluate these relationships. Data on Iraqi natural gas production, consumption, and burning practices were gathered and analyzed to estimate the economic impact of different variables on the country’s oil revenues. Results: The results of the study reveal that the relationship between the value of gas production and oil revenues, as well as the value of burned gas, aligns with the assumptions of economic theory. The price of gas in relation to European prices also shows a consistent relationship with oil revenues. Additionally, the value of gas produced, gas consumed, and gas burned significantly affects oil revenues. However, the impact of European gas prices on oil revenues was found to be weaker compared to the other variables studied. Conclusion: The research concludes that Iraq's natural gas resources have a substantial potential for contributing to the country's economic growth if they are invested in rather than burned. The findings support the hypothesis that efficient management of gas resources, with a focus on local consumption, could reduce Iraq's reliance on gas imports and enhance oil revenues. By optimizing the use of natural gas, Iraq could better harness its energy reserves, improving its overall economic stability and development.