Kiran Shakya

Some of the most intense thunderstorms and extreme weather events on Earth occur in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of Southern Asia. The need to provide end users, stakeholders, and decision makers with accurate forecasts and alerts of extreme weather is critical. To that end, a cutting edge weather modeling framework coined the High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) was created through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) SERVIR Applied Sciences Team (AST) effort, which consists of a suite of varied numerical weather prediction (NWP) model runs to provide probabilities of straight-line damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and intense rainfall as part of a daily 54 h forecast tool. The HIWAT system was first deployed in 2018, and the recently released model archive hosted by the Global Hydrometeorology Resource Center (GHRC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) provides daily model outputs for the years of 2018–2022. With a nested modeling domain covering Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Northeast India, the HIWAT archive spans the critical pre-monsoon and monsoon months of March–October when severe weather and flooding are most frequent. As part of NASA’s Transformation To Open Science (TOPS), this data archive is freely available to practitioners and researchers.

Forest fires in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region are increasing in frequency and severity, driven by climate variability, prolonged dry periods, and human activity. Nepal, a critical part of the HKH, recorded over 22,700 forest fire events in the past decade, with fire incidence nearly doubling in 2023. Despite this growing threat, operational early warning systems remain limited. This study presents Nepal’s first high-resolution early fire risk outlook system, developed by adopting the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) using meteorological forecasts from the High-Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT). The system generates daily and two-day forecasts using a fully automated Python-based workflow and publishes results as Web Map Services (WMS). Model validation against MODIS, VIIRS, and ground fire records for 2023 showed that over 80% of fires occurred in zones classified as Moderate to Very High risk. Spatiotemporal analysis confirmed fire seasonality, with peaks in mid-April and over 65% of fires occurring in forested areas. The system’s integration of satellite data and high-resolution forecasts improves the spatial and temporal accuracy of fire danger predictions. This research presents a novel, scalable, and operational framework tailored for data-scarce and topographically complex regions. Its transferability holds substantial potential for strengthening anticipatory fire management and climate adaptation strategies across the HKH and beyond.