Changjiang Liu

In the field of the wood industry, the competitive effect caused by interregional resource differences and the linkage effect generated by industrial chain synergy profoundly affects the development direction of the industry in each province. Based on China’s input–output table from 2002 to 2017, this paper constructs an industrial comparative advantage measurement model using location entropy and finds that the industrial agglomeration advantage of the wood products industry in Heilongjiang Province is remarkable in the national context, and that it had already caught up with 79% of the provinces in 2017; we analyze the industrial characteristics of the wood products industry in Heilongjiang Province through the upstream and downstream degrees, the backward and forward correlation coefficients. The findings indicate that the average value of the downstream degree is 28.57% higher than the average value of the upstream degree in Heilongjiang Province, and the industry association mode has shifted from “demand-pull” to “supply-led”. Therefore, the timber industry in Heilongjiang Province has the capability to transform its resource advantage into a competitive edge across the entire industrial chain. Meanwhile, its sensitivity to economic fluctuations in various provinces is increasing significantly. However, there are still notable shortcomings: insufficient capacity to expand the terminal market and integrate the downstream segments of the industrial chain.

In the context of global timber supply chains facing policy adjustments, resource fluctuations, and market uncertainties, this study focuses on the resilience of the Sino-Russian timber supply chain. A system dynamics (SD) model is developed to analyze the dynamic evolution of the key segments. By integrating the entropy weight–TOPSIS method, the research quantitatively assesses overall supply chain resilience by synthesizing data from four capability dimensions—Russian logistics and transportation capability, Russian primary wood processing capability, Sino-Russian timber import–export capability, and Heilongjiang furniture sales capability—over the 2017–2033 period. Results indicate a “first decline, then rise” trajectory for resilience, with a minimum normalized resilience index of 0.1549 recorded in 2021, followed by a gradual recovery and sustained strengthening thereafter. Among evaluated segments, Russian logistics demonstrates the strongest short-term shock resistance (36.2% reduction in minimum resilience), while Heilongjiang’s sales segment exhibits optimal long-term recoverability (the normalized resilience index increased by an average of 0.0363 units per year during the recovery phase). Based on these findings, a “short-term logistics enhancement–long-term demand-driven” strategy is proposed to improve resilience, providing actionable insights for the high-quality development of the Sino-Russian timber supply chain.