Yuepeng Hu

Meiyu is a critical component of the summer rainy season over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) in China, and the Meiyu onset date (MOD), serving as a key indicator of Meiyu, has garnered substantial attention. This article demonstrates an in-phase relationship between MOD and the preceding spring Barents–Kara Seas ice concentration (BKSIC) during 1979–2023. Specifically, the loss of spring BKSIC promotes an earlier MOD. Further analysis indicates that decreased spring BKSIC reduces the reflection of shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing oceanic solar radiation absorption and warming sea surface temperature (SST) in spring. The warming SST persists into summer and induces significant deep warming in the BKS through enhanced upward longwave radiation. The BKS deep warming triggers a wave train propagating southeastward to the East Asia–Northwest Pacific region, leading to a strengthened East Asian Subtropical Jet and an intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High in summer. Under these conditions, the transport of warm and humid airflows into the YHRB is enhanced, promoting convective instability through increased low-level warming and humidity, combined with enhanced wind shear, which jointly contribute to an earlier MOD. These results may advance the understanding of MOD variability and provide valuable information for disaster prevention and mitigation.