Jinfei Wu

Railway passenger flow forecasting plays a critical role in operational efficiency and resource allocation for transportation systems. However, existing deep learning approaches suffer significant performance degradation when facing rare but high-impact events, primarily due to sample scarcity and their inability to distinguish between routine patterns and disruption regimes. To address these challenges, this study introduces EA-ARIMA-Informer, an adaptive forecasting framework that integrates entropy-augmented ARIMA with Informer through an entropy-guided regime-switching mechanism. The passenger flow series is characterized through a multi-dimensional entropy space comprising four complementary measures: Sample Entropy quantifies local regularity and predictability, Permutation Entropy captures the complexity of ordinal dynamics, Transfer Entropy measures causal information flow from external events (holidays, weather) to passenger demand, and the Conditional Entropy Growth Factor (CEGF)—a novel metric introduced herein—detects regime transitions by tracking the rate of uncertainty change between consecutive time windows. These entropy indicators serve dual roles as feature inputs for representation learning and as state identifiers for segmenting the time series into stable and fluctuating regimes with distinct predictability properties. An adaptive dual-path architecture is then designed accordingly: EA-ARIMA handles low-entropy stable regimes where linear seasonality dominates, while EA-Informer processes high-entropy fluctuating regimes requiring nonlinear residual modeling, with CEGF-guided gating dynamically controlling component weights. Unlike conventional black-box gating mechanisms, this entropy-based switching provides physically interpretable signals that explain when and why different model components dominate the forecast. The framework is validated on a large-scale dataset covering nearly 300 Chinese cities over three years (2017–2019), encompassing normal operations, holiday peaks, and extreme weather disruptions. Experimental results demonstrate that EA-ARIMA-Informer achieves a MAPE of 4.39% for large-scale cities and 7.82% for data-scarce small cities (Tier-3), substantially outperforming standalone ARIMA, XGBoost, and Informer, which yield 15.95%, 13.75%, and 12.87%, respectively, for Tier-3 cities. Ablation studies confirm that both entropy-based feature augmentation and CEGF-guided regime switching contribute significantly to these performance gains, establishing a new paradigm for interpretable and adaptive forecasting in complex transportation systems.

Optimizing passenger train line planning is a complex task that involves balancing operational costs and passenger service quality. This study investigates the adjustment and optimization of train line plans to better align with passenger demand and operational constraints, while minimizing systematic costs. These costs include train operation expenses (e.g., line usage fees and station service fees), passenger travel costs, and hidden costs such as imbalances in station stops. Line usage fees refer to charges for using railway tracks, whereas station service fees cover services provided at train stations. The optimization process employs a Simulated Annealing Algorithm to adjust train compositions, capacity configurations, and stop patterns to better match passenger demand. The results indicate a 13.89% reduction in the objective function value, reflecting improved overall efficiency. Notably, most costs are reduced, including train operating costs and passenger travel costs. However, ticketing service fees—which are calculated as a percentage of passenger fare revenue—increased slightly due to additional backtracking in passenger travel paths, which raised the total fare collected. Overall, the optimization improves the operational performance of the train network, enhancing both efficiency and service quality.