Shuwen Li

Quantifying glacier contributions to river discharge is challenging because many land surface models (LSMs) lack glacier processes, whereas standalone glacier models are often disconnected from catchment hydrology. Here we develop the Conjunctive Surface–Subsurface Process model version 2-glacier coupled model (CSSPv2-GLC), and evaluate it over the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) at 3 km during 1979–2017. The glacier coupling raises Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly streamflow simulation at Tuotuohe station from 0.63 to 0.79 during calibration and from 0.61 to 0.76 during validation. CSSPv2-GLC reduces glacier surface temperature error to 1.85 K, compared with 3.09 K for the CSSPv2. Glacier meltwater contributions to total discharge reached 11.5% in July and 10.8% in August in the Yangtze headwaters. In contrast, the Lancang and Yellow headwaters contributed up to 4.5% and 1.8% in August. Dry-year contributions are 2–3 times higher than wet-year values, indicating a transient drought-buffering effect. These results demonstrate the value of integrating physically explicit glacier processes into land surface modeling frameworks for water resource assessment in glacierized headwater regions, and highlight the necessity of accounting for non-stationary glacier contributions to streamflow.

The rainy season characteristics are directly modulated by atmospheric circulation and moisture transport dynamics. Focusing on the characteristics of the rainy season onset date (RSOD), this study aims to advance the understanding and prediction of climate change impacts on agricultural production and disaster mitigation strategies. Based on rainfall data from 66 meteorological stations in northeast China (NEC) from 1961 to 2020, this study determined the patterns of the RSOD in the region and established its mechanistic linkages with atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport mechanisms. This study identifies a climatic regime shift around 2000, with the RSOD transitioning from low to high interannual variability in NEC. Further analysis reveals a strong correlation between the RSOD and atmospheric circulation characteristics: cyclonic vorticity amplifies before the RSOD and dissipates afterward. Innovatively, this study reveals a significant transition in the water vapor transport paths during the early rainy season in NEC around 2000, shifting from eastern Mongolia–Sea of Japan to the northwestern Pacific region. Moreover, the advance or delay of the RSOD directly influences the water vapor transport intensity—an early (delayed) RSOD is associated with enhanced (weakened) water vapor transport. These findings provide a new perspective for predicting the RSOD in the context of climate change while providing critical theoretical underpinnings for optimizing agricultural strategies and enhancing disaster prevention protocols.