Yan Lan

Under the backdrop of global climate warming, both forest vegetation greening and resilience decline coexist, and the consistency of these trends at the regional scale remains controversial. This study uses the kNDVI (Kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and TAC (Temporal Autocorrelation) index framework, combined with BEAST and Random Forest methods, to quantify and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of forest resilience and its driving factors in Southwest China from 2000 to 2022. The results show the following: (1) Forest resilience exhibits a “high in the northwest and low in the southeast” spatial distribution, with a temporal pattern of “increase-decrease-increase.” The years 2010 and 2015 are key turning points. Trend shift analysis divides resilience into six types. (2) Although forest vegetation shows a clear greening trend, resilience does not necessarily increase with greening, and in some areas, an “increase in greening—decline in resilience” asynchronous pattern appears. (3) The annual average temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation are the main climate factors and their influence on resilience follows a nonlinear relationship. Higher temperatures and increased radiation may suppress resilience, while increased precipitation can enhance it. This study suggests incorporating the TAC indicator into ecological monitoring and early warning systems, along with applying trend classification results for region-specific management to improve the scientific basis and adaptability of forest governance under climate change.