Aaron Mutisya

This study presents an integrated geospatial and hydrological assessment of flood patterns in Aweil East and South, located in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, South Sudan. Using HEC-RAS v6.6 Rain-on-Grid modeling, the research simulates rainfall-induced runoff across low-gradient catchments characterized by subsistence agriculture, grasslands, and seasonal wetlands. High-resolution datasets including the FABDEM v1.2 bare-earth elevation model and ESA World Cover land use classification were used to delineate watershed boundaries, estimate surface roughness, and calculate runoff volumes. Rainfall frequency analysis over a 110-year period was applied to determine return periods and hazard thresholds. A weighted Curve Number of 87.2 was derived from land cover proportions, enabling accurate runoff estimation using the SCS method. Results show that even frequent rainfall events with 1–2 year return periods can generate significant flood hazards due to minimal elevation change and poorly defined drainage channels. Flood hazard categories were evaluated using depth-velocity criteria from the Australian Rainfall and Runoff Guidelines, highlighting risks to settlements and infrastructure. The findings offer a robust framework for flood risk mapping, climate resilience planning, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable agro-pastoralist communities.

This study presents a qualitative analysis of the socio-economic and health impacts of recurrent flooding in Aweil East and South, South Sudan, based on Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with women, elders, farmers, fishers, internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, and persons with disabilities (PWDs). The findings reveal that flooding is not just an environmental event but a catalyst that exacerbates pre-existing vulnerabilities and deepens social inequalities. Participants reported the widespread destruction of livelihoods, severe disruption of essential services, and an increase in physical and mental health risks. The study also highlights profound social injustices, including the economic disempowerment and gender-based violence faced by women, the systemic exclusion of elders and PWDs from disaster response, and the precarious existence of displaced persons. The findings underscore the urgent need for inclusive, community-driven, and gender-sensitive disaster preparedness and recovery strategies that prioritize dignity, resilience, and justice for all.

This study presents a comprehensive social baseline assessment of Aweil East and Aweil South counties in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, South Sudan regions acutely affected by recurrent flooding, displacement, and service deprivation. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research synthesizes data from 241 household surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews to illuminate the socio-economic vulnerabilities, gender dynamics, and service access gaps across diverse population groups. Findings reveal that 77.2% of households are female-headed, 86.7% include women of reproductive age, and nearly one-third host individuals with disabilities underscoring the need for gender-responsive and disability-inclusive recovery planning. Despite some presence of safe spaces, 95.9% of households lack access to health, psychosocial, or legal services, and 79.7% report no formal platform for community voice. These insights offer an evidence base for aligning local needs with national disaster risk reduction strategies and global frameworks such as the Sendai Framework and Sustainable Development Goals. The study advocates for inclusive governance, targeted service delivery, and community-driven resilience planning in post-disaster contexts.