Fei Xu

Against the backdrop of global climate change and resource-environmental constraints, land ecological security is paramount to regional sustainable development. This study innovatively integrates the DPSIRM system framework with a CNN-LSTM hybrid neural network model to establish a land ecological security early warning system for China’s top 100 counties, enabling scientific diagnosis and dynamic early warning of security incidents. Findings indicate: (1) From 2010 to 2023, land ecological security conditions across counties showed continuous improvement, with the proportion of counties classified as ‘relatively safe’ or higher rising from 2% in 2010 to 68% in 2023. (2) The comprehensive early warning index exhibited a ‘stepwise leap’ trend, progressing through four stages from ‘relatively unsafe’ to ‘relatively safe’. (3) The six subsystems exhibited markedly divergent evolutionary trajectories, characterised by dual-core leadership from ‘driving-management’, fluctuating improvements in ‘pressure-impact’, and low-amplitude oscillations in ‘state-response’. (4) Over the next five years, the comprehensive early warning index will exhibit a ‘gradual stabilisation and upward trend’, yet subsystems will display a polarised pattern of ‘three rising, two stagnant, and one declining’. The early warning system developed in this study provides local decision-makers with critical leading indicators, supporting differentiated management and source-level interventions. These findings hold significant implications for refining county-level ecological governance and optimising territorial spatial patterns.