Emanuela Penitente
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Emanuela Penitente has a total of 9 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Bruno Buonomo
Department of Mathematics and Applications, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cintia, 80126 Naples, Italy
2 shared publications - Alfredo Guarino
Department of Translational Medical Science, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80131 Naples, Italy
1 shared publication Anna Autoriello
PhD National Programme in One Health approaches to infectious diseases and life science research, Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, viale Golgi 19, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy
1 shared publication- Burcu Gürbüz
Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz
1 shared publication - Cristina Moracas
Department of Translational Medical Science University of Naples “Federico II” Naples Italy
1 shared publication - Marco Poeta
Pediatric Infectious Disease Unit, Department of Maternal and Child health, University Hospital “Federico II”, Naples, Italy
1 shared publication
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 7 August 2026
- Published by Springer Nature in Ricerche di Matematica
- p. 1-25
Global stability and uniform persistence in an epidemic model with saturating fomite-mediated transmission
We analyse the global dynamics of a Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SVEIR) epidemic model with demographic turnover, imperfect vaccination, and two transmission routes: direct host-to-host contagion and indirect transmission via contaminated fomites. Indirect transmission is described through an environmental pathogen concentration and a Holling-type dose–response function, accounting for nonlinear incidence at high contamination levels. Threshold conditions separating disease elimination from long-term persistence are expressed in terms of the control reproduction number $$\mathcal R_c$$ , and the classical threshold condition $$\mathcal R_c<1$$ is derived for the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. For the Holling type II case, we further obtain an explicit closed-form sufficient condition for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium by applying the Kamgang–Sallet approach for monotone systems with a Metzler infected subsystem. In the absence of vaccination, this criterion recovers the sharp threshold $$\mathcal R_0\le 1$$ for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, where $$\mathcal R_0$$ denotes the basic reproduction number. Conversely, when $$\mathcal R_c>1$$ , we establish uniform persistence of the infection and the existence of at least one endemic equilibrium using persistence theory for semiflows and an acyclicity analysis of the boundary dynamics. Overall, our results quantify the combined impact of vaccination and saturating fomite-mediated transmission on the global behaviour of the model.- 7 August 2026
- Published by Springer Nature in Ricerche di Matematica
- p. 1-25
Open AccessGlobal stability and uniform persistence in an epidemic model with saturating fomite-mediated transmission
We analyse the global dynamics of a Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SVEIR) epidemic model with demographic turnover, imperfect vaccination, and two transmission routes: direct host-to-host contagion and indirect transmission via contaminated fomites. Indirect transmission is described through an environmental pathogen concentration and a Holling-type dose–response function, accounting for nonlinear incidence at high contamination levels. Threshold conditions separating disease elimination from long-term persistence are expressed in terms of the control reproduction number $$\mathcal R_c$$ , and the classical threshold condition $$\mathcal R_c<1$$ is derived for the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. For the Holling type II case, we further obtain an explicit closed-form sufficient condition for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium by applying the Kamgang–Sallet approach for monotone systems with a Metzler infected subsystem. In the absence of vaccination, this criterion recovers the sharp threshold $$\mathcal R_0\le 1$$ for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, where $$\mathcal R_0$$ denotes the basic reproduction number. Conversely, when $$\mathcal R_c>1$$ , we establish uniform persistence of the infection and the existence of at least one endemic equilibrium using persistence theory for semiflows and an acyclicity analysis of the boundary dynamics. Overall, our results quantify the combined impact of vaccination and saturating fomite-mediated transmission on the global behaviour of the model. - Open Access
PerTexP: scenario-based exploration of pertussis dynamics under maternal and infant vaccination
We introduce PerTexP (Pertussis Time Exploration), an interactive modelling tool designed to investigate pertussis transmission dynamics and to support the evaluation of vaccination strategies and short-term projections. PerTexP allows users to explore and compare maternal, infant, and non–infant booster vaccination scenarios and to assess their potential impact on disease transmission, with a particular focus on the Italian epidemiological context. The tool is based on a discrete-time, stage–structured compartmental model with two age classes. By enabling rapid scenario-based analyses, PerTexP supports evidence-informed decision-making and provides transparent insights into how alternative vaccination strategies may shape pertussis dynamics. Combining accessibility, flexibility, and methodological rigour, PerTexP offers a practical resource for researchers and public health practitioners interested in exploring and comparing pertussis control strategies.
Open AccessPerTexP: scenario-based exploration of pertussis dynamics under maternal and infant vaccination
We introduce PerTexP (Pertussis Time Exploration), an interactive modelling tool designed to investigate pertussis transmission dynamics and to support the evaluation of vaccination strategies and short-term projections. PerTexP allows users to explore and compare maternal, infant, and non–infant booster vaccination scenarios and to assess their potential impact on disease transmission, with a particular focus on the Italian epidemiological context. The tool is based on a discrete-time, stage–structured compartmental model with two age classes. By enabling rapid scenario-based analyses, PerTexP supports evidence-informed decision-making and provides transparent insights into how alternative vaccination strategies may shape pertussis dynamics. Combining accessibility, flexibility, and methodological rigour, PerTexP offers a practical resource for researchers and public health practitioners interested in exploring and comparing pertussis control strategies.
- Open Access
- 16 September 2025
- Published by Springer Nature in Journal of Mathematical Biology
- Vol. 91 (4) , 1-42
Modelling behavioural changes and vaccination in the transmission of respiratory viruses with co–infection
We consider a mathematical model to explore the effects of human behavioural changes on the transmission of two respiratory viruses, where co–infection is possible. The model includes an index to describe the human choices induced by information and rumours regarding the diseases. We first consider the case in which the public health authorities rely only on non–pharmaceutical containment measures and perform a qualitative analysis of the model through bifurcation theory, in order to analyse the existence and stability of both endemic and co–endemic equilibria. We also show the impact of the most relevant information–related parameters on the system dynamics. Then, we extend the model by assuming that a vaccine is available for each of the two viruses. We show how adherence to social distancing may be affected by information and rumours regarding the vaccination coverage in the community. Finally, we investigate the effects of seasonality by introducing a two–state switch function to represent a reduction in both vaccination and transmission rates during the summer season. We found that seasonality causes an increase in the prevalence peaks, suggesting that the detrimental effects due to the reduction of vaccination rates prevail over the beneficial ones due to the reduction of transmission.
- 16 September 2025
- Published by Springer Nature in Journal of Mathematical Biology
- Vol. 91 (4) , 1-42
Open AccessModelling behavioural changes and vaccination in the transmission of respiratory viruses with co–infection
We consider a mathematical model to explore the effects of human behavioural changes on the transmission of two respiratory viruses, where co–infection is possible. The model includes an index to describe the human choices induced by information and rumours regarding the diseases. We first consider the case in which the public health authorities rely only on non–pharmaceutical containment measures and perform a qualitative analysis of the model through bifurcation theory, in order to analyse the existence and stability of both endemic and co–endemic equilibria. We also show the impact of the most relevant information–related parameters on the system dynamics. Then, we extend the model by assuming that a vaccine is available for each of the two viruses. We show how adherence to social distancing may be affected by information and rumours regarding the vaccination coverage in the community. Finally, we investigate the effects of seasonality by introducing a two–state switch function to represent a reduction in both vaccination and transmission rates during the summer season. We found that seasonality causes an increase in the prevalence peaks, suggesting that the detrimental effects due to the reduction of vaccination rates prevail over the beneficial ones due to the reduction of transmission.