Yuan Yuan

Financial risk early warning systems provide critical corporate financial status information to stakeholders, including corporate managers, investors, regulatory agencies, and other interested parties, enabling informed decision-making. This study proposes a corporate financial risk early warning model based on a bagging–cascading–boosting architecture, which can be used to predict the financial risk of a firm. The model performance is improved by integrating the residual fitting characteristics of LightGBM, the variance suppression mechanism of bagging, and the adaptive expansion ability of the cascade framework. Evaluated on 46 financial indicators from 2826 A-share-listed companies, the model demonstrates superior performance in AUC and F1-score metrics, outperforming traditional statistical methods and standalone machine-learning models. The methodological innovation lies in its tripartite mechanism: LightGBM ensures low-bias prediction, bagging controls variance, and the cascading structure dynamically adapts to data complexity, maintaining 94.09% AUC robustness, even when training data is reduced to 50%. Empirical results confirm this “ensemble-of-ensembles” framework effectively identifies Special Treatment (ST) firms, delivering early risk alerts for management while supporting investment decisions and regulatory risk mitigation.