Renzhao Liang

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) is increasingly confounded by \emph{variant contamination}: the training corpus contains semantically equivalent yet lexically or syntactically altered versions of test items. Unlike verbatim leakage, these paraphrased or structurally transformed variants evade existing detectors based on sampling consistency or perplexity, thereby inflating benchmark scores via memorization rather than genuine reasoning. We formalize this problem and introduce \textbf{DVD} (\textbf{D}etection via \textbf{V}ariance of generation \textbf{D}istribution), a single-sample detector that models the local output distribution induced by temperature sampling. Our key insight is that contaminated items trigger alternation between a \emph{memory-adherence} state and a \emph{perturbation-drift} state, yielding abnormally high variance in the synthetic difficulty of low-probability tokens; uncontaminated items remain in drift with comparatively smooth variance. We construct the first benchmark for variant contamination across two domains Omni-MATH and SuperGPQA by generating and filtering semantically equivalent variants, and simulate contamination via fine-tuning models of different scales and architectures (Qwen2.5 and Llama3.1). Across datasets and models, \textbf{DVD} consistently outperforms perplexity-based, Min-$k$\%++, edit-distance (CDD), and embedding-similarity baselines, while exhibiting strong robustness to hyperparameters. Our results establish variance of the generation distribution as a principled and practical fingerprint for detecting variant contamination in LLM evaluation.

Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in critical domains such as energy management and financial markets. Although deep learning-based approaches (e.g., MLP, RNN, Transformer) have achieved remarkable progress, the prevailing "long-sequence information gain hypothesis" exhibits inherent limitations. Through systematic experimentation, this study reveals a counterintuitive phenomenon: appropriately truncating historical data can paradoxically enhance prediction accuracy, indicating that existing models learn substantial redundant features (e.g., noise or irrelevant fluctuations) during training, thereby compromising effective signal extraction. Building upon information bottleneck theory, we propose an innovative solution termed Adaptive Masking Loss with Representation Consistency (AMRC), which features two core components: 1) Dynamic masking loss, which adaptively identified highly discriminative temporal segments to guide gradient descent during model training; 2) Representation consistency constraint, which stabilized the mapping relationships among inputs, labels, and predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that AMRC effectively suppresses redundant feature learning while significantly improving model performance. This work not only challenges conventional assumptions in temporal modeling but also provides novel theoretical insights and methodological breakthroughs for developing efficient and robust forecasting models.