Jaewon Rhee

Intellectual property (IP) is a cornerstone of sustainable industrial growth, yet unpredictable fluctuations in patent application filings pose a challenge to the administrative efficiency and sustainable governance of patent offices. This study aims to enhance strategic R&D governance by analyzing the seasonality of patent application filings using monthly data from the Republic of Korea (January 2001 to July 2024) and proposing a time series forecasting model that reflects this seasonality. To verify seasonal patterns, visual analyses (graphs, time series decomposition, and autocorrelation function plots) and the Kruskal–Wallis test were conducted. The results confirmed a clear 12-month seasonal pattern, characterized by a distinct “December Rush” at the end of each year. Based on these findings, we compared the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models, demonstrating that the SARIMA model offers superior predictive performance by effectively capturing these cyclical fluctuations. Furthermore, by segmenting data into private and public R&D sectors, we observed that private R&D exhibits more pronounced seasonal volatility, necessitating differentiated management strategies. This study highlights the critical role of seasonality in forecasting patent volumes and provides a data-driven framework for sustainable governance, offering actionable insights for optimizing resource allocation and policy support in the innovation ecosystem.

Increasing macroeconomic uncertainty necessitates that firms optimize their R&D investment and commercialization strategies. Patents, as crucial outcomes of R&D with legal protection, impose significant costs due to progressively increasing maintenance fees. Predicting patent life accurately thus becomes critical for effective patent management. Previous studies have often and primarily employed classification models for patent life prediction, while limiting practical utility due to coarse granularity. This study proposes a robust ensemble regression model combining multiple machine learning techniques, such as Random Forest and deep neural networks, to directly predict patent life. The proposed model achieved superior performance, surpassing individual baseline models, and recorded a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of approximately 852.81. Additional validation with active patents further demonstrated the model’s practical feasibility, showing its potential to support sustainable intellectual property management by accurately predicting longer life for high-quality patents currently maintained. Consequently, the proposed model provides ongoing firms and brand-new startups with a decision support tool for strategic patent maintenance and commercialization decisions. By promoting efficient allocation of R&D resources and reducing unnecessary maintenance of low-value patents, the approach fosters sustainable management of innovation assets, enhancing predictive accuracy and long-term applicability.