Takuto Kumagae

Rapid peri-urban expansion has intensified flood risk in Southeast Asian cities through wetland loss, rural–urban migration, and delayed infrastructure development. This study examines the spatial and temporal dimensions of flood risk in Phnom Penh, Cambodia using a multi-factor framework based on hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. Vulnerability and coping capacity are analysed at both community and household levels. Migrant settlement duration captures differences in exposure and adaptive capacity over time. A composite flood risk index is constructed from survey data using the Rank Order Centroid weighting method. Results show that exposure is the dominant driver of flood risk, exceeding the influence of hazard intensity and largely shaping spatial patterns. Community-level vulnerability and coping capacity exert stronger effects than household-level characteristics, highlighting the importance of infrastructure and local settings. Flood risk varies across migrant groups: new migrants face the highest risk due to elevated exposure and vulnerability, while long-term migrants experience lower risk as adaptive capacity improves over time. However, risk reduction varies across groups, with persistent challenges linked to infrastructure and disaster preparedness systems. These findings highlight the importance of community-scale resilience strategies and targeted infrastructure investment to reduce flood risk in rapidly urbanising cities.

Urban flooding increasingly challenges rapidly expanding cities in developing countries. Migration, weak urban planning, and unregulated land use collectively intensify flood risk. Effective flood mitigation requires understanding the dynamic interactions between physical and social processes that shape urban vulnerability. This study examines how migrant households in flood-prone areas adapt over time to enhance resilience. The study applies a dynamic flood risk framework using settlement-duration cohorts from 560 peri-urban households in Phnom Penh. Findings show that rapid in-migration into flood-prone zones has increased physical exposure to flood hazards. Migrants’ adaptation and resilience, however, develop gradually, reducing vulnerability only over time. Newer migrants remain highly vulnerable due to insecure housing, limited renovation, and restricted access to flood information. Long-term migrants face structural and economic challenges, including low income, limited access to credit, and deteriorating housing conditions. Mid-term migrants demonstrate the strongest adaptive capacity, supported by stable income, housing investment, and access to flood information. Overall, the study contributes to more dynamic urban risk frameworks that incorporate demographic and socioeconomic transitions. These insights are relevant for other rapidly growing cities, particularly those in Southeast Asia.

Flooding poses a major hazard to rapidly urbanising cities in Southeast Asia, and risks are projected to intensify under climate change. Accurate risk assessment, however, is hindered by scarcity of hydrological and topographic data. Focusing on the Lower Prek Thnot River Basin, a peri-urban catchment of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, the study applied the Rainfall–Runoff–Inundation model and systematically augmented inputs: hourly satellite rainfall data, field-surveyed river cross-sections and representation of hydraulic infrastructure such as weirs and pumping. Validation used Sentinel-1 SAR-derived flood-extent maps for the October 2020 event. Scenario comparison shows that rainfall input and channel geometry act synergistically: omitting either degrades performance and spatial realism. The best configuration (Sim. 5) Accuracy = 0.891, Hit Ratio = 0.546 and True Ratio = 0.701 against Sentinel-1, and reproduced inundation upstream of weirs while reducing overestimation in urban districts through pumping emulation. At the study’s 500 m grid, updating land use from 2002 to 2020 had only a minor effect relative to rainfall, geometry and infrastructure. The results demonstrate that targeted data augmentation—combining satellite products, field surveys and operational infrastructure—can deliver robust inundation maps under data scarcity, supporting hazard mapping and resilience-oriented flood management in rapidly urbanising basins.

Natural disasters pose important risks to Cambodia's predominantly agricultural economy. Effective adaptation is necessary, but robust vulnerability assessments integrating local perceptions and science-based evidence tools must be established first. This study using surveys and interviews conducted in Battambang investigates farmers' perceptions of damage caused by natural disasters. An accompanying time series analysis assesses floods and droughts using four decades of rainfall data and paddy area damage records. Findings indicate that prolonged and frequent droughts most severely affected farmers. Heavy rainfall and high temperatures exacerbated unpredictable flooding and drought and reduced paddy productivity. Farmers anticipate worsening water shortages, adding stress to agricultural productivity and planning. However, time series analysis results revealed no significant long-term trend of flood or drought events. Findings suggest that farmers misperceive the frequency of natural disaster events because of oversensitization to climate change. These misperceptions might stem from several factors: limited span of their memories, often influenced by recent disasters; lack of awareness caused by limited education and inadequate access to reliable disaster information; and low adaptive capacity to cope with such events. Both farmer perceptions and time-series data analyses are subject to bias. Therefore, field survey and interview results must be interpreted cautiously. Future research should incorporate more in-depth analyses using science-based tools and extended time series data to assess natural disaster effects on agriculture comprehensively.