Gustavo Henrique Rodrigues Pessoa

Despite significant advances in bank regulation and the widespread adoption of macroprudential frameworks, emerging market economies remain persistently vulnerable to global financial shocks. Episodes such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 market turmoil, and recent monetary tightening cycles reveal that financial stress originating in core markets continues to transmit rapidly and forcefully to emerging economies. This paper argues that such vulnerability reflects structural features of contemporary financial systems rather than deficiencies in domestic banking regulation alone. Adopting a conceptual and analytical approach, the article develops an integrated framework of macro-financial blind spots that links global financial cycles, non-bank financial intermediation, and regulatory fragmentation. The analysis highlights how funding liquidity, collateral valuation, margin dynamics, and market-based leverage amplify global shocks through channels that lie largely outside traditional, bank-centric macroprudential frameworks. As market-based finance expands, systemic risk increasingly originates in activities rather than institutions, limiting the effectiveness of entity-based regulation and reinforcing emerging markets’ role as price-takers in global portfolios. The paper contributes to the literature by synthesizing insights from macroprudential policy, market liquidity, and non-bank finance to explain the persistence of emerging market vulnerability in an era of globalized funding. It further derives policy implications for macro-financial governance, emphasizing the need for system-wide, activity-based approaches, improved data and transparency, and stronger domestic and international regulatory coordination. These findings are relevant for policymakers seeking to reconcile financial integration with systemic resilience in emerging markets.

A crescente automação dos mercados financeiros tem transformado a forma como ordens são executadas, riscos são transmitidos e infraestruturas de mercado são supervisionadas. No Brasil, a modernização das plataformas de negociação, a expansão do uso de algoritmos, os mecanismos de acesso eletrônico e a sofisticação dos intermediários financeiros tornam cada vez mais relevante discutir se o arcabouço regulatório existente é suficiente para lidar com riscos tecnológicos de natureza sistêmica. Este artigo analisa as lacunas regulatórias associadas aos mercados financeiros automatizados, com ênfase na interação entre negociação algorítmica, infraestrutura crítica, intermediação não bancária, proteção do investidor e estabilidade financeira. A pesquisa adota abordagem qualitativa, documental e jurídico-regulatória, baseada na análise de normas brasileiras, documentos institucionais, standards técnicos e literatura especializada sobre governança algorítmica e risco sistêmico. Sustenta-se que o problema central não está na ausência absoluta de regulação, mas na fragmentação entre diferentes camadas normativas: execução de ordens, supervisão de intermediários, segurança tecnológica, infraestrutura de mercado e análise macroprudencial. O artigo conclui que a governança brasileira dos mercados automatizados deve avançar para uma abordagem mais integrada, capaz de articular inovação, integridade de mercado, proteção do investidor e prevenção de riscos sistêmicos em ambiente financeiro cada vez mais dependente de tecnologia.

A expansão dos fundos de hedge nas últimas décadas tem ampliado o debate sobre os limites da regulação financeira nos Estados Unidos, especialmente no que se refere à identificação e ao monitoramento de riscos sistêmicos. Embora esses fundos desempenhem funções relevantes na dinâmica dos mercados, como provisão de liquidez e estratégias de arbitragem, sua atuação fora do perímetro regulatório tradicional tem revelado fragilidades importantes no arcabouço de supervisão financeira. Este artigo examina as principais lacunas regulatórias associadas à supervisão dos fundos de hedge no contexto norte-americano, com foco no período posterior à crise financeira de 2008 e na implementação do Dodd-Frank Act. A pesquisa adota uma abordagem qualitativa, baseada na análise de literatura especializada, documentos institucionais e casos ilustrativos amplamente discutidos no debate regulatório recente. A análise evidencia que, apesar dos avanços normativos observados após a crise, persistem desafios relacionados à fragmentação institucional, à dispersão de competências regulatórias e à existência de exceções legais que limitam a transparência e a supervisão efetiva desses agentes. Argumenta-se que tais lacunas contribuem para a transferência do risco sistêmico para fora do sistema bancário tradicional, dificultando a atuação preventiva das autoridades reguladoras. Conclui-se que o fortalecimento da estabilidade financeira requer maior coordenação entre os órgãos de supervisão, bem como o aprimoramento dos mecanismos de reporte e monitoramento aplicáveis aos fundos de hedge, de modo a reduzir vulnerabilidades e mitigar riscos sistêmicos no sistema financeiro dos Estados Unidos.

Despite significant advances in bank regulation and the widespread adoption of macroprudential frameworks, emerging market economies remain persistently vulnerable to global financial shocks. Episodes such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 market turmoil, and recent monetary tightening cycles reveal that financial stress originating in core markets continues to transmit rapidly and forcefully to emerging economies. This paper argues that such vulnerability reflects structural features of contemporary financial systems rather than deficiencies in domestic banking regulation alone. Adopting a conceptual and analytical approach, the article develops an integrated framework of macro-financial blind spots that links global financial cycles, non-bank financial intermediation, and regulatory fragmentation. The analysis highlights how funding liquidity, collateral valuation, margin dynamics, and market-based leverage amplify global shocks through channels that lie largely outside traditional, bank-centric macroprudential frameworks. As market-based finance expands, systemic risk increasingly originates in activities rather than institutions, limiting the effectiveness of entity-based regulation and reinforcing emerging markets’ role as price-takers in global portfolios. The paper contributes to the literature by synthesizing insights from macroprudential policy, market liquidity, and non-bank finance to explain the persistence of emerging market vulnerability in an era of globalized funding. It further derives policy implications for macro-financial governance, emphasizing the need for system-wide, activity-based approaches, improved data and transparency, and stronger domestic and international regulatory coordination. These findings are relevant for policymakers seeking to reconcile financial integration with systemic resilience in emerging markets.

This article examines how large-scale fiscal–financial crime schemes in Brazil exploit legal and regulatory fragmentation, non-bank intermediation channels and institutional blind spots to generate systemic fiscal risk. Drawing on recent national operations in the fuel, logistics, beverage, retail and e-commerce sectors, it analyses how fintechs, payment institutions, investment funds, holding companies and shell entities have been used as parallel financial systems to sustain chronic tax evasion (devedores contumazes), money laundering and competitive distortions. Methodologically, the study adopts a qualitative, document-based approach, relying on official investigations, judicial records, government reports and regulatory documents. It integrates insights from financial regulation, public financial management, macro-supervision and organized crime to construct an analytical framework for understanding how fiscal–financial crime operates within the legal architecture of emerging markets. The findings show that fragmented supervisory mandates, gaps in the regulatory perimeter and limited data-sharing across tax, financial and sectoral authorities enabled criminal groups to operate at scale for long periods. These structures weakened state capacity, eroded public revenue and embedded illicit flows in key markets, thereby amplifying systemic vulnerabilities. The article contributes to the legal and regulatory literature by consolidating lessons from Brazil’s recent large-scale operations—such as Carbono Oculto, Poço de Lobato and Tank—into an integrated model of chronic tax evasion as a source of systemic fiscal risk. It concludes with a set of regulatory and public financial management recommendations that are relevant for both emerging markets and advanced jurisdictions facing similar legal and supervisory challenges.

This article examines how fintechs and payment institutions in emerging markets have been used as parallel banking infrastructures that facilitate tax evasion, large-scale money laundering and regulatory arbitrage. Focusing on Brazil, it analyzes recent high-profile investigations—such as the Carbono Oculto, Tank and Quasar operations—to show how criminal organizations exploited payment institutions, digital accounts and card schemes to move value outside the visibility of traditional banks and supervisory authorities. The study employs a qualitative, document-based approach, drawing on official reports, judicial decisions, supervisory guidance and financial intelligence materials to map the architecture of fintech-enabled illicit finance. The findings show that fintechs and payment institutions provided anonymity, opacity and transactional mobility through fragmented regulatory perimeters, lighter reporting requirements and gaps between financial, tax and AML/CFT oversight. These blind spots allowed parallel banking structures to operate at national scale while remaining formally within the legal financial system. The article contributes by proposing an integrated conceptual framework for understanding fintech-enabled parallel banking in emerging markets and by outlining policy recommendations to close supervisory gaps, align reporting obligations across institutions and strengthen cooperation between financial regulators, tax authorities and law-enforcement agencies.

Capital mobilization is often portrayed as the main bottleneck to decarbonization in emerging economies, yet BRICS countries struggle to scale clean energy even when funding is formally available. This paper argues that capital is a necessary but insufficient condition for the energy transition in the BRICS because institutional fragility creates binding financial barriers. Drawing on a comparative, document based analysis of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the study synthesizes academic literature, international reports and policy documents on clean energy investment, governance and financial systems. It develops a conceptual framework linking political and regulatory risk, fiscal constraints and the role of public development banks to the cost and allocation of capital for low carbon projects. The analysis highlights common patterns—such as high perceived country risk, policy instability and weak project pipelines—that raise the cost of capital and deter private investment, as well as country specific institutional configurations that condition outcomes. The paper concludes that improving governance, policy credibility and the design of public financial institutions is as important as mobilizing new capital, and discusses implications for climate finance strategies and future research on the political economy of the energy transition in emerging markets.

Hedge funds and other non-bank financial intermediaries have become central players in global capital markets, yet their leverage and liquidity risks remain imperfectly captured by macroprudential frameworks that were designed primarily for banks. Episodes such as the March 2020 turmoil in US Treasury markets, the collapse of Archegos Capital and recent stress in gilt markets have highlighted how leveraged non-bank positions can generate systemic shocks that propagate across borders, including to emerging markets. This article develops a conceptual analysis of the channels through which hedge fund and non-bank leverage interacts with macroprudential policy, focusing on lessons from the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom and their relevance for emerging market economies. Drawing on official reports and the academic literature, it examines how macroprudential tightening and regulatory fragmentation in advanced economies can encourage risk migration to non-banks and spillovers to emerging market asset prices, funding conditions and exchange rates. The article then discusses policy options for emerging markets, including the design of macroprudential toolkits, the monitoring of cross-border non-bank exposures and the coordination with advanced-economy regulators and central banks. It concludes by outlining an agenda for integrating non-bank and cross-border dimensions more systematically into macroprudential policy in emerging markets.

This research aims to model and forecast the trajectory of socioeconomic integration between the BRICS countries and Turkey in the context of deglobalization and escalating geoeconomic fragmentation. The study evaluates the impact of external shocks, including the updated US tariff regime, trade conflicts, global downturns, sanctions pressure, and institutional limitations, on the sustainability and intensity of intra-bloc engagement. Employing a comparable panel time series from 2000 to 2023 for a selected set of countries, we apply several econometric methods for the first time in a unified framework: panel ARDL, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and ARIMA forecasting up to 2030. The empirical analysis results show that regional financial integration, infrastructure development, and R&D have a statistically significant and persistently positive impact on intra-bloc trade volumes and socioeconomic cooperation between BRICS countries and Turkey. Simultaneously, digital connectivity shows a short-term stimulating effect followed by phase saturation, indicating the need for the structural modernization of the digital environment. Institutional attributes exhibit heterogeneous effects, underscoring the necessity of harmonizing regulatory frameworks and aligning them with international sustainable development standards. The scientific novelty of this study resides in the design and empirical validation of an advanced forecasting model that incorporates institutional, infrastructural, innovation-related, and digital dimensions. This study delineates integration scenarios for BRICS and Turkey intended to inform strategies for regional macroeconomic coordination, establish transaction mechanisms based on national currencies, and define balanced investment priorities within the transition toward a multipolar global governance architecture.

This article presents a novel empirical framework for evaluating knowledge-based transformation and sustainable development in BRICS-T countries. The framework is based on an integrated Triple Helix assessment model that quantifies the interrelationships between research output, educational innovation, industry engagement, market alignment and policy support. Using a comprehensive dataset from 60 universities across BRICS-T countries, combined with an AHP-based weighting system derived from 24 cross-sector experts, this study reveals previously unidentified patterns in innovation and educational outcomes. Our method demonstrates that only research output (β = 0.375, p < 0.001) and industry engagement (β = 0.418, p < 0.001) consistently predict innovation output across all BRICS-T countries, while market alignment influences educational quality in only four out of the six nations. The analytical framework successfully quantifies significant performance variations across countries, with innovation output scores ranging from 2.89 to 4.23 and educational quality scores ranging from 3.08 to 4.15. The findings contribute to Triple Helix theory through country-specific decomposition of relationships, supplementing existing knowledge-based economy theories with quantitative evidence of differential effectiveness across emerging economies. This methodology can be implemented for strategic planning in higher education systems transitioning from resource-based to knowledge-based economies.