Manlu Zhao

Lagria nigricollis (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) is a forest pest, widely distributed in East Asia. The impact of climate change on its distribution is currently unknown. To better understand how the geographic distribution of this species responds to future climate change, this study employed the MaxEnt model, integrating 21 environmental variables, to explore changes in its distribution range under different climate scenarios. The results indicated that the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the MaxEnt model across different periods is 0.991, demonstrating the reliability of the model’s predictions. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) and the temperature seasonality (bio04) were the most important environmental variables. Under current conditions, the suitable areas for L. nigricollis are mainly located in China (North China and Central China), the Korean Peninsula, and Japan (Kyushu, Shikoku, and the southern part of Honshu). In the 2050s and 2070s, suitable areas are expected to expand under three socioeconomic pathways, which are 1.08–1.33 times larger than they are currently. The expanded areas are mainly located in the northern part of the current suitable regions. The centroids of suitable areas will shift northward under future climate conditions. To limit the northward expansion of this species, primary control regions will focus on China (the junction of Inner Mongolia–Xinjiang and Northern China), Russia (the southeastern part of the Far Eastern Federal District), and Japan (Hokkaido). The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the forest pest control and distribution prediction of Lagria nigricollis.