Hua Xu

The coordination of agricultural water use efficiency (AWUE) and the level of agricultural economic development (AEDL) is crucial for promoting high-quality development in the Qilian Mountains region. This study was aimed at examining the synergistic development trends and spatial distribution characteristics of AWUE and AEDL. This study focused on 11 cities (autonomous prefectures) within and adjacent to the Qilian Mountains region, employing the Super-SBM model and a comprehensive evaluation model to measure AWUE and AEDL. The coupling coordination degree model and coefficient of variation method were used to analyze the level of development coordination as well as spatial differences. The findings indicate that (1) from 2010 to 2022, both AWUE and the AEDL in these areas showed a significant upward trend, with AWUE increasing from 0.379 to 0.924 and AEDL rising from 0.284 to 0.437. The spatial analysis reveals a pattern of high values in the northeast and low values in other regions; (2) the coupling degree (CD) between AWUE and AEDL is in the primary coupling stage (0.456–0.474), with the coupling coordination degree (CCD) transitioning from low (0.401) to high coordination (0.554) between 2010 and 2022. The spatial distribution characteristics of the CD and CCD are high in the middle section and low in the eastern and western sections. Furthermore, the high coordination area exhibits a spreading evolutionary trend, from Zhangye City to Hexi Corridor regions, from the middle to the east and west sections, and from the north to the south section. These findings suggest that the coupling and coordination between AWUE and AEDL in the Qilian Mountains region have been improved, reaching a higher level. Combined with targeted suggestions, the findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted policies and water-saving measures to advance sustainable agricultural development in arid areas.

The socioecological system (SES) of the Qilian Mountains community—mountains, water, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and sands—faces considerable challenges from climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Here, we aimed to examine the coupled coordination relationships within the Qilian Mountains community. Using a comprehensive evaluation index system for the socioeconomic components of the life community, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of the coupled coordination degree (CCD) from 2000 to 2023, identified key hindering factors, and forecasted future trends based on a grey prediction model. The overall CCD achieved a historic leap from near-disharmony to sound coordination. The findings reveal the following: (1) The overall CCD achieved a historic leap from near-disharmony to sound coordination from 0.340 to 0.523, indicating a transition into a synergistic development phase, though with persistent spatial disparities. (2) System coordination is primarily constrained by water, farmland, and grassland subsystems, with water supply–demand imbalance being the foremost regional obstacle. In the Hexi Oasis area, this manifests as a sharp contradiction between farmland expansion and agricultural water demand. In the Qinghai region, it is deeply intertwined with topography, water yield modulus, and the distribution of forested and aquatic areas. (3) GM(1,1) projections suggest a continued upward trajectory for CCD, yet also underscore the complexity and long-term nature of coordinated development. This study established a framework for socioecological system research in arid and vulnerable regions, with the conclusions providing a reference for optimizing national ecological security barrier construction and regional high-quality coordinated development.