Mengdie Wen

The resilience of arid ecosystems to climate change hinges on their carbon-water dynamics. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) and its resilience in the ecologically vulnerable Yili-Balkhash Basin, a critical watershed in Central Asia. Contrary to a basin-wide trend of increasing WUE, we identify a significant decline in the WUE of high-productivity forest ecosystems. We demonstrate that this decline stems from a fundamental decoupling between the drivers of carbon (GPP) and water (ET) cycles during drought periods. While GPP shows a positive response to atmospheric aridity (vapor pressure deficit), likely driven by co-varying high radiation and temperature, ET remains primarily controlled by soil moisture and surface thermal conditions. This driver asynchrony results in ET-dominated control over WUE across 65.8% of the basin, rendering forests particularly vulnerable. Machine learning-based attribution reveals that ecosystem resilience is not determined by long-term drought legacy but by the combined effects of immediate thermal stress and a one-month ecological memory. Our findings highlight an emerging vulnerability of high-productivity forest ecosystems to atmospheric aridity and underscore the necessity of process-based frameworks for assessing ecosystem stability under a changing climate.

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) stands as a crucial metric for evaluating the condition and performance of terrestrial ecosystems. This study focuses on northern Xinjiang, China, as the research site. By employing the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model alongside meteorological data, we examined the spatiotemporal variations in vegetation NPP from 2001 to 2022. The model utilized monthly NDVI, climate drivers, and vegetation type raster data as inputs, while the Mann–Kendall test, We utilized Theil–Sen trend analysis and residual analysis to investigate how climatic factors and human activities drove NPP changes. Results show that from 2001 to 2022, vegetation NPP in northern Xinjiang generally rose with fluctuations, averaging 127.96 gC·m⁻²·a⁻¹ annually and growing linearly at 0.58 gC·m⁻²·a⁻¹. Spatially, NPP displayed a pattern of “high in the west and low in the east, high in mountainous areas and low in deserts.” High NPP areas are mainly clustered in the Ili River Valley and adjacent mountainous regions, encompassing eastern and southwestern Ili Prefecture, northern Tianshan slopes, Balq Mountains, and southern Borokunu foothills, where hydrothermal conditions are relatively advantageous. In the last 22 years, the mean temperature in northern Xinjiang showed a fluctuating upward trend, precipitation exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, and solar radiation demonstrated a significant declining trend. Partial correlation analysis revealed that, compared with temperature and solar radiation, precipitation had a stronger positive correlation with NPP. Residual analysis showed that in areas where vegetation NPP exhibited recovery, human activities were the dominant driving factor, accounting for 23.58% of the total area, whereas the influence of climate change was relatively minor. Conversely, in regions where vegetation NPP degraded, climate change exerted a greater impact than human activities. This research clarifies the combined impacts of climate and human actions on ecosystem productivity in arid areas, offering a scientific foundation and reference for ecological protection and regional carbon control in such regions. This provides a scientific basis for formulating rational response strategies to restore vegetation and enhance the quality of ecosystems in arid regions.