Shaowei Huo

As product carbon footprint (PCF) quantification shifts from voluntary practice to regulatory requirement under mechanisms such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, evidence on implementation readiness in major exporting economies remains limited. This study examines PCF standard implementation among 277 enterprises in major Chinese export-manufacturing provinces, together with nine industry associations and 31 certification bodies. Because enterprises were recruited through government-affiliated channels, the sample is a convenience sample, and the findings describe institutionally accessible enterprises rather than national estimates. Grounded in the Technology–Organization–Environment framework, the analysis combines logistic regression with Firth penalized estimation, outcome-aware multiple imputation and sensitivity analysis, DEMATEL–ISM expert-informed synthesis, correspondence analysis, and directed content analysis. Working-group establishment and importer disclosure requirements were the most robust correlates of PCF adoption across estimation approaches and missing-data treatments; standard availability was significant only under multiple imputation and is reported as imputation-dependent. Other hypothesized associations were not robust. Among enterprises with codable responses, 42.0% had calculated their PCF, 31.5% had established working groups, and 68.0% lacked applicable standards. Expert synthesis identified limited applicable standards as the foundational upstream barrier. The findings indicate that standard consolidation and sector-differentiated organizational support are priority intervention areas, requiring confirmation through longitudinal research.

China’s rapid electric vehicle (EV) market expansion—from 331,000 units in 2015 to over 9.5 million in 2023—is generating an unprecedented wave of retired lithium-ion batteries projected to exceed 94 TWh cumulatively by 2060, presenting critical challenges for sustainable resource management. While grid decarbonization can reduce use-phase emissions, the substantial embodied carbon in battery production (55–130 kg CO₂-eq/kWh) remains a critical challenge for achieving carbon neutrality. This study presents an integrated dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) and prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) framework—calibrated against the latest peer-reviewed literature—to quantify the carbon mitigation potential of battery recycling and second-life applications from 2020 to 2060. We evaluate four end-of-life management scenarios: baseline linear economy, enhanced recycling, second-life dominant, and synergistic optimization. Our results reveal that the synergistic scenario achieves the highest cumulative avoided emissions of 3844 Mt CO₂-eq, representing a 12.1-fold improvement over the baseline. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis (n = 10,000) confirms robust scenario differentiation, with 100% probability that synergistic optimization outperforms enhanced recycling alone. Material security analysis shows that recycled supply can meet 100% of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper demand by 2060 under optimal management. These findings provide quantitative evidence for chemistry-differentiated battery management policies aligned with China’s dual carbon goals and the transition toward a sustainable circular economy.

This study employed bibliometric methods to analyze the global research patterns and evolutionary pathways in lithium battery carbon emissions from the Web of Science Core Collection database spanning 2008 to 2025. With the rise of the global electric vehicle market and the advancement of carbon neutrality policies, this field has evolved from a peripheral topic to a core energy‑environment topic. Using VOSviewer, CiteSpace, and RStudio, the research examines publication trends, national and regional collaboration, keyword co‑occurrence, thematic evolution, and core journals and institutions. The main findings indicate that annual publication volume exhibits a three-phase growth trajectory: Initial Germination Period (2008–2014), Steady Growth Period (2015–2019), and Explosive Growth Period (2020–2025). This progression appears closely linked to electric vehicle adoption and rising demand for battery recycling. The landscape is dominated by China and the U.S., with China leading in publication volume and the United States exerting greater influence on research impact. Europe and Asia-Pacific contribute through diversified international collaboration. Research themes coalesce around a Technology–Environment–Circulation ternary framework, with core keywords including “lithium-ion battery,” “life cycle assessment,” and “recycling.” The field has progressed from technological optimization to environmental assessment and circular economy considerations, and more recently shift toward digital governance. Journal analysis reveals pronounced interdisciplinary characteristics, with publications spanning energy, environmental, and multidisciplinary fields. These findings provide a statistical foundation for understanding the dynamic evolution of this field. Future research should emphasize multidisciplinary integration, policy coordination, and systematic evaluation of battery recycling technologies to inform international collaboration and sustainable development policy.