Jincheng Li

Green finance has emerged as a crucial instrument for driving the macroeconomic transition toward a low-carbon economy, yet its specific transmission mechanisms warrant deeper empirical scrutiny. Leveraging China’s Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this scientific study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) framework using provincial panel data from 2009 to 2023. To overcome the limitations of unidimensional metrics, we developed a comprehensive Industrial Structure Upgrading Index (ISUI) that integrates structural rationalization, advancement, and greening. The empirical findings reveal that the green finance pilot policy exerts a significant and positive impact on the ISUI. This core result remains robust under a series of rigorous checks, including the Callaway and Sant’Anna (CS-DID) estimator. Mechanism analyses demonstrate a dual “push–pull” dynamic: Green Credit Intensity (GCI) acts as the primary mediating channel by directing targeted financial resources (financial pull), while stringent environmental regulation positively moderates this effect (administrative push). Furthermore, the moderating role of digital finance is statistically non-significant, underscoring the policy’s broad inclusiveness and its independence from regional digital infrastructure. Heterogeneity estimations identify a clear structural catch-up effect, with more pronounced benefits observed in resource-dependent regions and areas with historically lower innovation capacities. Ultimately, these findings indicate that coordinating targeted financial incentives with environmental oversight can effectively drive multidimensional industrial upgrading, providing valuable evidence for sustainable transition strategies.