Lei Shi

In highly digitalized and networked modern trading systems, large volumes of heterogeneous data are continuously generated from multiple sources during market operations. However, due to the complexity of data structures, significant differences in temporal scales, and constraints imposed by data privacy protection, traditional single-source modeling approaches are unable to fully exploit multisource information. To address this issue, a federated multimodal prediction framework for complex market systems, termed Federated Market-Sensor Transformer (FMST), is proposed. In this framework, data originating from different information sources are uniformly modeled as multimodal time series. A multimodal market-sensor representation module is constructed to perform unified feature encoding, and a cross-modal Transformer fusion architecture is employed to characterize dynamic interaction relationships among different information sources. Meanwhile, a federated collaborative learning mechanism is introduced during the training phase, enabling multiple data nodes to perform collaborative model optimization without sharing raw data. In this manner, data privacy can be preserved while improving the cross-region generalization capability of the model. Systematic experimental evaluation is conducted on the constructed multimodal market-sensor dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms traditional statistical models and deep learning approaches across multiple evaluation metrics. In the main prediction experiment, FMST achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of $0.1136$, a mean absolute error (MAE) of $0.0832$, and a coefficient of determination $R^2$ of $0.8517$, while the direction prediction accuracy reaches $74.56\%$, clearly outperforming baseline models including ARIMA, LSTM, Temporal CNN, Transformer, and FedAvg-LSTM. In the cross-region generalization experiment, FMST maintains strong performance, achieving an RMSE of $0.1242$, an MAE of $0.0908$, an $R^2$ value of $0.8261$, and a direction prediction accuracy of $72.48\%$. The ablation study further indicates that the three core components—multimodal market-sensor representation, cross-modal Transformer fusion, and federated collaborative learning—each make important contributions to the overall model performance. These experimental findings demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively integrate multisource market information and significantly enhance the prediction capability for complex market dynamics, providing a new technical pathway for the application of artificial intelligence-driven multimodal sensing systems in economic data analysis.