Caroline Ahlström Arcini

Yersinia pestis , the causative agent of plague, crippled population across Eurasia in three well-described historical pandemics: The Justinianic plague (541-780), the Second Pandemic (1346-1840) and the Third Pandemic (1894-). The Second Pandemic was the deadliest, with the Black Death (1346-1351) killing up to 60% of Europe’s population, far exceeding the population mortality of the Third pandemic, despite few genomic differences between their plague strains. To identify unique genetic variation that could help explain the high death toll of the Second Plague pandemic, we used variation-graph based pan-genomics on a large dataset of 110 new and 12 published shotgun sequenced ancient plague genomes to comprehensively characterise the pangenome diversity of the Second Pandemic plague. Our pangenomic approach revealed the presence of a cryptic 34kb plasmid, pTP33, in almost all strains from the Second Pandemic, but undetectable in all other ancient strains. We find that pTP33 is a phage-plasmid-like derived element with homologues in Enterobacterales bacteria with established insect- or invertebrate-associated lifestyle phases. Our results suggest that pTP33 widened the range and infectivity of vector species available for plague transmission, consistent with reported effects on biofilm formation and bacterial retention. We hypothesise that pTP33 broadened the vector range of Y. pestis beyond the classical rat/flea cycle, facilitating the establishment of new rodent-ectoparasite plague reservoirs, which, critically, increased the risk of flea- or lice-mediated plague transmission between humans. Taken together, our findings offer a biological explanation for differences in transmission dynamics and population mortality between the Second and Third plague pandemics.

One of the most devastating events in human history, the Black Death (c.1347-1353), marked the beginning of the Second Plague Pandemic. After initially receding, plague returned in intermittent outbreaks throughout Europe, beginning with the pestis secunda . Despite its significance, the post-Black Death epidemiology of Yersinia pestis remains poorly understood. Here, we report 23 new Y. pestis genomes recovered from Second Plague Pandemic contexts across Scandinavia, the Netherlands, Iceland, and Armenia, spanning approximately 270 years. Applying a reproducible mutation-filtering pipeline to assess genetic diversity, we report both Black Death and post-Black Death lineages and document multiple waves of plague at individual cemetery sites. We identify four pestis secunda genomes, including three from Armenia, supporting the eastward dissemination of this lineage prior to its disappearance from Europe. We also resolve a previously under-characterised Branch 1A sub-lineage of Y. pestis and provide the first genomic evidence of plague in Iceland, resolving longstanding uncertainty over its presence on the island. Finally, by calling variants against a reconstructed ancestral reference, we identify clade-defining mutations, including nonsynonymous changes in metabolic and biofilm-related genes with predicted structural effects that may have contributed to shaping the epidemiological dynamics of the Second Plague Pandemic.

The second plague pandemic (early 14th-early 19th centuries), which was caused by Yersinia pestis, had a profound demographic, socio-economic and cultural impact across Eurasia and North Africa. Many regions in Europe and the Middle East are estimated to have lost 40-60% of their human populations, with some areas suffering even higher mortality. Whether exposure to Y. pestis drove strong positive selection on protective genetic variants in the human genome, and how it shaped migration patterns, remains debated, despite several recent studies based on ancient DNA. Here, we analyse a markedly larger, higher coverage, and geographically diverse dataset based on shotgun sequencing of genomes from 529 ancient individuals to a mean depth 8.8x dating to either before or after the arrival of the pandemic at three sites in northern Europe: Trondheim (Norway), Lund (Sweden) and Vilnius (Lithuania). Genome-wide scans for signatures of selection provide no evidence for strong positive selection acting on specific genetic variants driven by Y. pestis exposure: we neither replicate selection signatures reported by previous studies nor identify new genome-wide significant candidates. However, for all three sites, we observe evidence for a reduction in long-range immigration, indicated by a drop in the diversity of ancestry that followed the arrival of Y. pestis and broadly coincided with the end of the Viking Age, Christianisation and the onset of the Little Ice Age. Our results shed important light on the demographic impact of major sociohistorical changes that occurred during the late Medieval period in Scandinavia and the Baltic region and link Christianisation to increased diversity in ancestry before the pandemic.