Sanja Antić

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is most commonly estimated using the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith (PM) equation. However, its application is often limited by the lack of required meteorological parameters. Due to their flexibility, ability to operate with limited input, and high accuracy in estimating ET₀, machine learning models have become increasingly relevant in scientific research, offering a practical alternative under limited data conditions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied to estimate daily ET₀ using meteorological data from the Novi Sad station in Vojvodina (Serbia). The dataset consisted of eight meteorological variables relevant to evapotranspiration processes. Analysis showed that some variables had a stronger influence on ET₀ prediction than others. To evaluate their combined effect, a series of ANN models with different input combinations were developed and tested. The random forests, gradient boosting and k-nearest neighbors models were used as a benchmark, and model performance was evaluated using R², NSE, RMSE, and MAE. The highest accuracy was achieved when all variables were included, providing the model with maximum information. The best performance was obtained using a two-hidden-layer architecture with 32 and 16 neurons, resulting in R² = 0.97, NSE = 97.07%, RMSE = 0.23 mm/day, and MAE = 0.21 mm/day. The results showed that a limited number of input variables can be used to estimate ET₀ with high accuracy, achieving an R² value of 0.95 using only three input variables. Therefore, the findings of this study may contribute to more accurate and cost-effective irrigation scheduling and water balance estimation, providing practical benefits for agricultural water management and farmers in Serbia.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is most commonly estimated using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. However, its application is often limited by the lack of required meteorological parameters. Due to their flexibility, ability to operate with limited input, and high accuracy in estimating ET0, machine learning models have become increasingly relevant in scientific research, offering a practical alternative under limited data conditions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied to estimate daily ET0 using meteorological data from the Novi Sad station in Vojvodina (Serbia). The dataset consisted of eight meteorological variables relevant to evapotranspiration processes. Analysis showed that some variables had a stronger influence on ET0 prediction than others. To evaluate their combined effect, a series of ANN models with different input combinations was developed and tested. The FAO-56 PM method was used as a benchmark, and model performance was evaluated using R2, NSE, RMSE, and MAE. The highest accuracy was achieved when all variables were included, providing the model with maximum information. The best performance was obtained using a two-hidden-layer architecture with 32 and 16 neurons, resulting in R2 = 0.98, NSE = 97.86%, RMSE = 0.25 mm day-1, and MAE = 0.17 mm day-1.