Dawen Tan

The primary objective of this research is to quantitatively isolate the complex driving factors of slope deformation and explicitly reveal the long-term creep mechanism induced by early excavation unloading, thereby providing a theoretical basis for long-term stability evaluation. To achieve this, this study adopts a combined approach of multivariate statistical regression and numerical simulation inversion based on long-sequence monitoring data. First, a multivariate statistical regression model incorporating time-dependent, rainfall, temperature, valley width, and excavation components was constructed to quantitatively separate the contribution weights of each factor. Second, by introducing a rock–soil creep constitutive model, a refined finite element model was established to perform back-analysis of creep parameters and numerical simulation. The results indicate that two large-scale slope-cutting excavations were the direct triggers for the deformation, resulting in shear dislocation of the deep ancient sliding zone and superficial slippage. The dominant factors exhibit distinct phasic and spatial differences: before impoundment, the time-dependent component was absolutely dominant (>80%); after impoundment, low-elevation areas were significantly affected by valley width shrinkage (>60%), while high-elevation areas remained dominated by time-dependent deformation (>74%). Numerical simulation confirmed that the nature of the deformation is “excavation unloading-induced creep along the ancient sliding zone,” and the simulation results considering creep effects accurately reproduced the actual deformation characteristics observed in situ. It is concluded that the rheological effects induced by early excavation unloading are central to the control of long-term stability.