Alejandra Castro Susa

Background : Potato is a vital food security crop in Colombia that faces increasing threats from emerging pests, particularly potato purple top and zebra chip, both transmitted by Bactericera cockerelli . Despite the growing risks in this regard, epidemiological data in the Andean region remain limited, constraining proactive pest management. Methods : To assess potential risks in Colombia, we developed multi-scale species distribution models using MaxEnt and random forest at meso (10,000 km) scales, projecting the potential establishment of B. cockerelli under current conditions and for 2040 using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Presence records were compiled from ICA (Instituto Colombiano Agropecuario) official surveillance and free worldwide dataset GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility), while background points were selected using stratified random sampling in environmental space. Results : Model performance was highest at the mesoscale (AUC = 0.997–0.999), surpassing global-scale predictions (AUC = 0.785–0.969), which highlights the importance of fine-scale environmental and spatial factors for accurate forecasting. Our results indicate that B. cockerelli establishment will largely remain restricted to the Eastern Cordillera, primarily due to the constraints of temperature limits. Pixel-level analyses revealed contrasting algorithmic outputs: MaxEnt suggested relative distributional stability, whereas random forest predicted potential expansions into new areas. Areas where both models agree identify high-confidence zones that warrant focused surveillance and management interventions, while regions of model disagreement flag emerging risk areas requiring proactive monitoring. Conclusions : These findings provide a spatially explicit, evidence-based framework for prioritizing surveillance, early detection, and integrated pest management in Colombia’s potato systems. By integrating climate-adapted predictive modeling with risk mapping, this study supports informed decision making to mitigate pest impacts, safeguard yields, and enhance the resilience of potato production under changing climatic conditions.

El seminario explora la bacteria Xylella fastidiosa en el cultivo de café en Colombia como una plaga cuarentenaria recientemente detectada, explicando que habita en los vasos del xilema donde obstruye el paso de agua y nutrientes, afectando el desarrollo de la planta. También analiza su transmisión a través de insectos vectores como las chicharritas, que se alimentan del xilema y facilitan su propagación. Se presentan las acciones de control establecidas por el ICA, entre ellas la vigilancia fitosanitaria, la delimitación de zonas afectadas y los protocolos de diagnóstico para contener posibles brotes. Además, se describe la situación actual de la caficultura en el país, señalando que, aunque se han reportado casos en algunos departamentos, aún no representa una limitante grave ni ha generado impactos significativos en la producción. Finalmente, se mencionan estudios, especialmente de Brasil, que evidencian diferencias genéticas entre las variantes que afectan distintos cultivos, lo que sugiere un bajo riesgo de infección cruzada.

Huanglongbing (HLB), caused by Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) and transmitted by Diaphorina citri, is one of the most devastating bacterial diseases in citrus worldwide. In Colombia, the ICA (Instituto Colombiano Agropecuario, according to its Spanish acronym) has maintained official surveillance of the pathosystem since 2016. This study integrated institutional, empirical, and digital evidence to assess the phytosanitary status of CLas in Colombia within a plant public-health framework. We analyzed official surveillance records (2013-2024) alongside scientific literature, grower association materials, and Google Trends digital epidemiology data. Results indicated that CLas remained largely localized in the Caribbean region, with new detections in citrus-producing areas of the Andean region in the departments of Antioquia and Santander, while D. citri exhibited a much broader distribution. The HLB was reported across multiple host species and production contexts, including commercial orchards, backyards, and natural areas, and could act as potential reservoirs that facilitated spread within Colombia’s heterogeneous landscape. Digital data trend analysis showed that peaks for D. citri preceded official reports by two months, suggesting its potential as an early-warning tool. In contrast, interest in “HLB” was aligned with official data, but there was a need to reduce both spatial and temporal bias. These findings revealed HLB dynamics in Colombia and underscored the need to treat phytosanitary surveillance as a preventive public good, supported by multisectoral coordination and data science. The proposed framework integrated science, policy, and society, positioning HLB as a public-interest issue within the Plant Health paradigm.