Yichen Liu

To enhance the meteorological forecasting and early warning service capability for urban waterlogging risks in Jinan, this study aims to investigate the relationship between rainfall and urban waterlogging. Based on minute-scale precipitation observations from 38 automatic weather stations and records from 70 waterlogging monitoring sites in the urban area of Jinan from 2011 to 2024, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation and waterlogging events and quantifies their response relationship. The main findings are summarized as follows. Heavy precipitation and waterlogging events are strongly temporally coincident, primarily occurring during the main flood season from June to August. Regarding diurnal variation, short-duration heavy rainfall and waterlogging events are concentrated between 14:00 and 20:00. The water depth of most waterlogging events ranges from 0.11 m to 1.04 m, with a median of 0.26 m, and the distribution of waterlogging exhibits a pronounced right-skewed pattern. A moderate positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in waterlogging depth, suggesting that severe urban waterlogging events are more likely to occur in the northern region of Jinan. The precipitation preceding waterlogging events is predominantly short-duration heavy rainfall. A strong temporal relationship exists between peak precipitation and maximum waterlogging depth. In nearly 90% of the waterlogging events, peak precipitation occurs within 2 h before the maximum waterlogging depth, with an average lead time of approximately 55 min. The relationship between antecedent cumulative precipitation and peak waterlogging depth is strongest at the 120 min timescale. About 90% of maximum rainfall over 10 min, 1 h, and 2 h did not exceed the 1-year return period threshold, indicating that the precipitation causing waterlogging events in Jinan is generally non-extreme.