Hanane Ouddoud

Background and Objectives: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has one of the highest age-standardized diabetes prevalence rates globally, yet all-age, diabetes-specific evidence incorporating GBD 2023 estimates through 2023 remains limited. Materials and Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 21 MENA countries from 1990 to 2023, this ecological time-trend analysis quantified 33-year trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); compared pre-2019 and post-2019 trajectories using joinpoint regression; characterized age- and sex-specific burden patterns; and quantified contributions of modifiable risk factors. Results: Age-standardized incidence increased 92%, from 251.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 231.5 to 272.4) to 482.5 (95% UI: 451.5 to 516.4) per 100,000, and prevalence more than doubled, from 5564 (95% UI: 5088 to 6024) to 11,247 (95% UI: 10,382 to 12,132) per 100,000. In 2023, males exhibited higher DALY rates than females in most adult age groups from age 15 years onward, shifting away from the female-predominant pattern seen in 1990; female rates remained higher at several of the oldest age groups. Children aged 0 to 14 years were the only group with declining DALY rates (−52% to −57%). Post-2019 incidence was higher in 15 of 21 countries, and six countries had higher DALY trends with non-overlapping confidence intervals. Because we only have four to five years of data, these short trends are preliminary and require care when evaluating. High body-mass index was the leading modifiable risk factor. Conclusions: These data support country-specific prevention and chronic-care strategies across the MENA region.

Background/Objectives: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden decreased in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region between 1990 and 2019. This study used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to examine whether trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence continued through 2023 across all 21 NAME countries. Methods: We analysed age-standardised CVD mortality, incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression identified changes in temporal trends and calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Age-standardised CVD mortality decreased from 579.6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 358.2 in 2023 (AAPC: −1.42%; 95% CI: −1.48 to −1.35). However, no significant reduction occurred between 2019 and 2023 (APC: −0.33%; 95% CI: −1.37 to 1.75). DALY, incidence, and prevalence rates followed similar patterns, with no significant decline in the final years of this study. Egypt was the only country with a long-term increase in CVD mortality, which accelerated after 2020 (APC: +5.20%; 95% CI: 1.20 to 12.87). High systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, lead exposure, and air pollution were the leading modifiable risk factors. Conclusions: The earlier decline in CVD burden in the NAME region did not clearly continue after 2019. The region is currently off track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 by 2030. Future progress may depend on improved blood pressure control, lipid management, dietary habits, and environmental risk reduction.